1 - Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson - At this point, the only way Lawrence wont go first is if the Jags somehow write the wrong name on the card.
2 - New York Jets - Justin Fields, QB, OSU - Zach Wilson vs Justin Field has become a hotter debate in recent times, with mocks seems to split 50/50 on which of the 2 will go before the other. This one will likely end up coming down to preference, but personally I prefer Field’s upside and athleticism. Still, it’ll probably end up being a close call overall.
3 - Carolina Panthers (via MIA via HOU - sends 1.08, 3.73, 2022 CAR 1st, 2022 CAR 2nd, for 1.03) - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU - This seems like a lot at first glance, but I’d bet on the Panthers being much improved next year with the return of a healthy McCaffery and Joe Brady/Matt Rhule having another year to establish their system. What that means is that if the Panthers can improve at QB, they could be a legitimate playoff contender. Teddy Bridgewater is not the answer, and IMO when you have someone as good as CMC, you need to give him a good QB. The Panthers don't want to end up like the Vikings, sticking a bunch of mediocre at best QBs next to their stud RB.
4 - Atlanta Falcons - Trey Lance, QB, NDSU - I know there’s a large portion of Falcons fans who really want to go anywhere but QB here, but how much longer can Matt Ryan play at a high level? With the 2022 QB class still full of question marks, grabbing your guy of the future right now would be a prudent move. Its instant gratification vs long term strategy. And with the success of raw QBs at the next level under proper development, Trey Lance looks like a solid bet. He’s got a great arm, and plays smart enough to only have a single interception in his college career. There’s a serious ceiling here, and he could absolutely benefit from learning from Matt Ryan for a year. Arthur Smith completely revitalized Tannehill as well, so maybe he could turn Lance into a stud.
5 - Cincinnati Bengals - Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon - Seems like it ends up working out for the Bengals, who really need to protect Joe Burrow. There’s been whispers that teams have Rashawn Slater over Sewell currently, but I partially chalk that up to prospect fatigue. IMO Sewell’s the best OT in the class, and although he’s got areas he can improve, his body of work is utterly dominant currently. If he can polish up his technique and stay healthy, he’ll be a godsend to the Bengals OL.
6 - Eagles - Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU - DeVonta Smith has been crazy this year, but it seems like people have forgotten Ja’Marr Chase was just as dominant last year too. Honestly, the Eagles really can't go wrong here with either WR, but IMO Chase is more of a sure thing to be dominant in the NFL, as minute of a difference as that is.
7 - Detroit Lions - DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama - After that insane performance against Ohio State, I don't think the Lions can pass up on Smith here, even as bad as their defense is. With their entire WR corps being possible FAs, they need to find replacements ASAP, especially if they cannot find a way to agree to a deal with Kenny Golladay. As for Smith well, he’s a beast. Plain and simple. Y’all saw what he did to Ohio State in just one half.
8 - Houston Texans (Via MIA via DET - Sends Deshaun Watson, 2022 HOU 3rd for 1.08, 2.50, 2022 MIA first, 2023 MIA first, Tua Tagovailoa, salary fillers) - Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan - The Dolphins send away Tua + a ton of picks for a shiny new franchise QB, and the Texans begin their rebuild. First up is addressing the defensive line. JJ Watt is very likely gone, Whitney Mercilus is done, and Jonathan Greenard has disappointed. They need someone who can make a serious impact, now. Kwity Paye has been one of the most dominant players in college football, with an insane pressure rate, and is a supposed athletic freak who runs a sub 6.8 3 cone at 6’4’’, 272, with some claiming it being as low as 6.37. No matter what the time ends up being, it's utterly insane for someone of his size, and he could likely play the same role that Watt does for the Texans.
9 - Denver Broncos - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State - The Broncos do really need CB, but there’s a pretty big hole in the middle of the defense next to Alexander Johnson. Josey Jewell isnt a 3 down LB, and it's really hard to pass up on Parsons here, an elite LB who can be the tonesetter of the Broncos defense from day one. Pairing up Parsons and Johnson should give Denver two monsters in the middle of the defense.
10 - Dallas Cowboys - Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech - Now that Dan Quinn’s the new DC, meaning that they’ll be running a ton of Cover 3. And with how much Quinn loves his physical/athletic CBs who can play both man and zone, Caleb Farley is the natural pick here IMO. He’s sticky as glue, with fluid hips and a size profile that NFL teams dream of, perfect for pattern-match that should be used a lot in Dallas next season. His zone coverage does need a little work, but the Cowboys will likely be doing mostly spot-drop zone, which is pretty simple to pick up, and outside of injury concerns, Farley should be a huge help for the Dallas defense.
11 - New York Giants - Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina - The Giants love their press man coverage, but were forced to run zone a lot last year due to how bad their cornerbacks were outside of James Bradberry. Jaycee Horn fits their preferred scheme, and also shores up that huge hole at CB2 that they have. No CB in the class is as good as disrupting WRs at the LOS as Horn is, and he’ll be a great addition to what was a surprisingly good defense last year.
12 - San Francisco 49ers - Patrick Surtain, CB, Alabama - The 49ers have 0 CBs under contract next year. They need building blocks now, especially with Robert Saleh now gone. Patrick Surtain fits into their zone heavy system perfectly. He’s got elite ball skills, is consistently disruptive, and can stick to WRs like glue. He’d be the perfect guy to replace Richard Sherman if the 49ers cant bring him back, and should be able to slot in at CB1 or CB2 immediately.
13 - LA Chargers - Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern - Slater’s a guy who's been getting a ton of hype in recent times, with some even putting him above Sewell. How much of that is real and how much of it is smoke? Hard to say at this point, but I do know that he’ll be an upgrade no matter where he slots in for the Chargers. Protecting Herbert should be there #1 priority right now, especially for the terrible LA OL. Slater should be a fantastic player for the Chargers from day 1.
14 - Miami Dolphins (Via Minnesota Vikings - sends 1.18, 3.82 for 1.14) - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama - Miami goes ALL in here. With Watson now on the roster, their window is now, and they treat it with urgency, giving up some more draft capital to grab the last of the 3 main stud WRs in the class. Jaylen Waddle fits what Miami needs right now, a speed demon joystick who would be what Will Fuller was for Watson in Houston, a connection that was lethal even with Fuller being injured constantly. Watson to Waddle should be one of the deadliest partnerships in the league, turning the Miami offense into a high powered scoring machine.
15 - New England Patriots - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama - Mac Jones is a guy who’s worked his way from fringe QB prospect all the way up to R1 guy. I'm not sure if the NFL likes him as much as most people in the draft community do, but he’s a smart QB who was instrumental in leading the Crimson Tide to a National Championship. I’d say he grades out pretty well at all the important areas of being a QB, like his arm, going through progressions, that kind of thing. This only big flaw IMO is his ability to extend plays, but the Patriots have the OL to shore up that weakness. The main question here is how will Mac Jones play without any solid WRs? The Patriots receiving corps is barren, so that will be something that must be addressed soon.
16 - Arizona Cardinals - Wyatt Davis, OG, Ohio State - The Cardinals offensive line seems to consistently lose at the LOS, something that was a huge part in them not making the playoffs. With that in mind and all of the top 3 CBs long gone, they grab the mauling OG out of Ohio State, an absolute mauler who can hit hard to create space in the run game. He’s a great fit for the Cardinals run game, and should give them some of the nasty they’ve been lacking.
17 - Las Vegas Raiders - Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoah, LB, Notre Dame - It's hard to say what the Raiders will go with, as Mayock has not been on the job that long, but this is a pick that I agree with Daniel Jeremiah on. The Raiders lack that dynamic linebacker who can move around and cover everything, and JOK should be able to line up all over. He’s perfect for an NFL that seems to value positionless players more, and especially for a Raiders defense that’s going to be stuck against Travis Kelce for the near future.
18 - Minnesota Vikings - Gregory Rousseau, DE/DT, Miami - When your sack leader is a guy you traded away half way through the season, there's a problem. That Vikings defense was inexcusably bad this year, even with the loss of Danielle Hunter, and basically cost their offense a shot at the playoffs. They need to add some juice to the pass rush ASAP. Gregory Rousseau would be perfect, a raw and crazy athletic player who can line up all over the defensive line to wreak havoc. Considering Minnesota turned one athletic freak into a stud, they should have confidence that they can make Rousseau great too, and he’d be a wonderful addition, especially considering the fact that the Vikings have moved around their edge rushers to exploit mismatches, most notably against the Saints.
19 - Washington Football Team - Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech - There doesn't seem to be a solid answer at QB available here for Washington, so they look to bolster up their trenches in order to replace the departed Trent Williams. Darrisaw has the size and length to be a fantastic NFL tackle, along with an extremely strong anchor and some great agility for his size. His technique needs to be cleaned up a little, but he could easily lock down the LT spot for Washington in the future.
20 - Chicago Bears - Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota - Allen Robinson is gone, leaving a huge hole at WR1 for Chicago. Seeing as there’s not really a great way to fix Chicago’s QB situation, they instead look to try and make the most of their closing window. Rashod Bateman should come in and be the WR1 for Chicago, a great route runner with sure hands who can snag a ball and some more yards after the catch. Hopefully Trubisky builds a much better connection with him than he did with Arob.
21 - Detroit Lions (Via IND - sends Matthew Stafford for 1.22, salary filler) - Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa - The Lions defense really needs help at LB. Jarrad Davis is probably starting again, but Tavai really shouldnt be. Zaven Collins can step in and be the best LB in the Lions from day 1, an absolute freak athlete who can cover, can stop the run, and even has a pass rushing upside. He’s the perfect chess piece for the new Lions defense to build around, and should be an immediate impact player from day 1.
22 - Tennessee Titans - Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa - The Titans need pass rush in every capacity, and that includes from the defensive line. Jeffery Simmons is a monster, but he doesn't get much help. He’d pair up great with Daviyon Nixon, a freak athlete out of the B1G who excels most when he gets to pin his ears back and just attack the QB. His ability to cause issues down the middle should help alleviate the Titans pass rush issues somewhat.
23 - New York Jets (Via SEA) - Kyle Pitts, TE/WR, Florida - The Jets just need to add weapons to their team at this point. Their WR corps has little promise outside of maybe Mims, and their TE corps is equally barren. Pitts addresses both of those issues at once. Able to play all over the lineup, Pitts can work as both a huge WR and a TE, able to consistently beat coverages and get catches against defenses. He’ll be a great weapon for Fields to utilize, a truly dynamic threat who could be one of the best receivers on the Jets from day 1.
24 - Pittsburgh Steelers - Liam Eichenburg, OT, Notre Dame - A lot of the Steeler’s tackle depth, most notably starting LT Alejandro Villenueva, will be lost to FA, and Pittsburgh needs to address that ASAP. Liam Eichenburg isnt the most athletic OT with a crazy high ceiling, but he’s a solid technician who should be able to start from day 1, perfect for a contending team like the steelers.
25 - Jacksonville Jaguars (via LAR) - Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas - The Jaguars need to protect their investment, especially with Cam Robinson a question mark to be back due to his poor play. Protecting a young QB should be the #1 priority after landing one, and Cosmi is a tantalizing prospect to add. He’s got plenty of athleticism and a frame that’s waiting to be filled out, a solid pass blocker who can deal with speed rushers really well. He’s a high ceiling prospect who could become a great LT and lock down Tlaw’s blind side for the future.
26 - Cleveland Browns - Jaelen Phillips, EDGE, Miami - Sometimes it just feels like the Browns defensive line is just Myles Garrett. That can't stand. The Browns need to give Garrett some help in the pass rush, and that's why they pick Jaelen Phillips. There’s a lot of injury concerns here, but if Phillips can stay healthy, he’s an absolute MONSTER in the pass rush, having notched 8 sacks in just 5 games this year. If he can stay on the field, he and Garrett should give opposing offensive lines some serious headaches.
27 - Baltimore Ravens - Alijah Vera-Tucker, iOL, USC - The Ravens need to bolster their offensive line more. After the loss of Marshall Yanda, the Ravens offensive line has taken a notable step back, and Ronnie Stanley’s injury certainly didn't help there. AVT’s easily BPA at this point, an interior beast who is a stone wall with excellent hand usage. He should be able to make the Ravens offensive line even better, and boost their already lethal run game to higher levels.
28 - New Orleans Saints - Kyle Trask, QB, Florida - Im sorry, I don't think Taysom Hill is an NFL level QB. Especially not for a title contender. Drew Brees is retired, and I doubt Winston will be back. That means QB is the most glaring hole in NO. Kyle Trask might never be Patrick Mahomes, but he’s a good solid player who can make accurate passes, adjusts to pressure well, and is willing to extend plays. With the Saints filled with weapons and talent, Trask should be a good enough game manager to help the Saints be contenders for the rest of their window.
29 - Green Bay Packers - Levi Onwuzurike, DT, Washington - Kenny Clark and Keke Kingsley are building blocks along the defensive line, but the Packers could afford to add some depth. Onwuzurike has been mocked in the first by DJ, and he tends to have his ear to most NFL team’s pulse. Onwuzuriki’s calling card is his length and athleticism, which combined with his explosiveness and motor results in him just running over people at times. He does need to improve his power and add more consistently, but the addition of Onwuzurike could make the Packers defensive line a force as good as the Steelers DL.
30 - Buffalo Bills - Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson - The Bills just need playmakers especially in the run game, and Etienne is one of the best pure playmakers in the class. He’s an explosive threat who must be addressed at all times, or else he could break free and gash the defensive for serious yardage. His acceleration and contact balance make him a problem to tackle, and with supposed 4.3 speed, defenders won't be able to catch him once he gets into open space. He’s no slouch in the pass game either, putting up solid production at Clemson and flashing the ability to run a few option routes. The Bills already have their Jim Kelly and Andre Reed in Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. Time to add the Thurman Thomas of the trio, and turn Buffalo into an offense that can toe to toe with the Chiefs.
31 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan - Donovan Smith is very likely gone this year, meaning that Tampa would have a hole at one of the tackle spots opposite of Wirfs. No matter if they move Wirfs to LT or keep him at RT, Mayfield would be a great get opposite of him. Mayfield’s a dependable run blocker who has good feet, and although he's not finished just yet, if Tampa can utilize his athletic gifts to the fullest, he’d be a great compliment to their current franchise OT.
32 - Kansas City Chiefs - Joe Tryon, EDGE, Washington - Joe Tryon’s another player who is apparently well regarded according to DJ. He’s shown flashes of being a great pass rusher, but he’s really still a WIP in most areas, especially as a run defender. However, he does fit the mold of what the Chiefs want in their pass rushers, standing at 6’5 262. Kansas City does need the help on the EDGE, and they can afford to take a gamble here, considering the Mahomes led offense should be able to easily cover up any defensive deficiencies for the next few years.

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We have made it! All 256 regular season and – since this year – twelve playoff games are in the books and there is just one matchup left to decide who will be crowned NFL champions. There are so many storylines leading up to the big game – the GOAT Tom Brady versus the kid Patrick Mahomes, two of the all-time great tight-ends on either side of the ball wearing number 87, the Buccaneers becoming the first ever team to host a Super Bowl in their home stadium, Andy Reid after all this time of coming up short, potentially winning back-to-back titles, while Bruce Arians is looking to finally get his first ring as a head coach and potentially becoming the oldest one to earn one in history, and many others.
As I do every year, I wanted to give a detailed look ahead to the big game, where I break down who these teams are, kind of how they got here and how they match up against each other. To do so I put together analysis of each offense and defense, plus where each could have the advantage, then I take a look back at when these two teams first met back in week 12, explain what they have and/or should have learned from it, give you an X-factor on either side of the ball for both and finally hand out my score prediction, while explaining what I believe will happen.
Let’s dive into it!
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Buccaneers offense vs. Chiefs defense:

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The Tampa Bay offense has been transitioning throughout the season. Early on it was Bruce Arians’ system with a lot of 12 and even 13 personnel, trying to establish a gap-scheme power run game and taking play-action shots off it from under center. And then a second offense was kind of implemented, which was more suited to what Tom Brady was used to in New England, where they spread the field and attack defenses with the quick game. However, it really was two separate playbooks almost, that they worked in. I think we have seen a little more of a symbiotic relationship, which I believe Byron Leftwich has had a big role in putting together. They motion their backs in and out or use their receivers as pre-snap coverage indicators at a much higher rate, letting Brady be surgical in the quick passing game, but still attacking vertically and using Gronk and the tight-ends as that extra in-line blocker to get enough time, because Brady still more than enough juice in his arm to push the ball down the field. Since week ten, Cameron Brate has also played about 41 percent of the snaps and I believe he gives them more versatility in what they can be from two tight-end personnel, since he can basically be a big slot for them. Their receiving corp as a whole offers a lot of versatility, whether it’s Mike Evans moving more into the slot this season, Antonio Brown being able to line up at any of the receiver spots or specialists like Scotty Miller to attack down the field.
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It’s a well-established narrative that if you can get to Tom Brady early, he becomes a much less effective passer and if you look at the five games, that they have come up short in 2020 (Saints twice, Bears, Rams and Chiefs), they have lost the battle up front offensively. Since their week 13 bye, following their last loss to Kansas City (including the playoffs), they have gone undefeated whilst averaging 34.3 points per game, with at least 30 in all three postseason battles. Looking at those games in particular, the defense was dominant at New Orleans and set up scoring opportunities directly, but against Washington and Green Bay, they completed a combined 11 passes of 20+ yards. So it is still very much about the big plays through the air (finished top three in 20+ and 40+ yard passes), but the efficiency of this offense has really gone up to a different level. At Detroit they were so dominant that Brady sat out the entire second half, then they scored on all but one of their possessions against Atlanta and now over this three-game road playoff run, they have had only three combined three-and-outs and turnovers in each of them. A big key to that has been the Bucs offensive line keeping Brady clean, as he has gotten sacked only 11 times over their active seven-game win streak and just once in all but two of those contests. To go with having better solutions to beat the blitz in their system.
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https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/5o8inlufbif61/player
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Unlike a lot of modern NFL offenses, that have incorporated more RPO elements and try to create numbers advantages in the run game with spread sets, Bruce Arians still brings that old-school flair with multiple tight-end sets and the power run game. There’s not a lot of wide zone blocking, but rather they create vertical movement at the point of attack with a heavy dose of duo, get those big offensive linemen on the move on toss plays and then I love watching those receivers get involved as blockers in the box – especially Chris Godwin, who they seriously have leading up in the hole or trapping three-techniques. When they run play-action off those looks, they use a lot of seven- and eight-man protections and try to hit defenses over the top, whether it’s deep crossers and posts or straight go routes down the sideline. As much success as they have with that recipe, when you look at the analytics, their tendency to run the ball on early downs shows there’s plenty of improvement in terms of efficiency, which is something I want to see them do in this game, to not get behind the chains and allow the Chiefs defense to be as creative on third down. When they go into shotgun and spread the field more, they look for ways to attack the middle of the field with their inside receivers primarily and when they see one-on-one on the outside with Mike Evans or Antonio Brown, they will take their shots. Double-moves are a large ingredient to what they do, especially out-and-up routes.
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For the Chiefs defense, they looked like they had carried over that momentum from last year’s Super Bowl run into 2020, not giving up more than 20 points in any of their first four games. In week five, the Raiders out of nowhere exploded for 40 points and handed them their only loss outside of week 17, when they rested several starters, before having three more great showings at Buffalo, Denver and then hosting the Jets. But since then, they have allowed at least 24 points in six of their final eight games. Part of that negative turnaround was the injuries they have had in the secondary and the lack of takeaways (one per game). The biggest piece however has been their inability to keep teams out of the end-zone when they got close. Looking at the whole regular season, no other team has allowed their opponents to create a higher rate of their red-zone trips into touchdowns (74.1%). That’s why so many of their games stayed close deep into the fourth quarter, which I’ll get to more in a little bit. When you look into play-calling, you can see that they played a lot more zone-coverage and rushed only four or five, because they simply didn’t have the guys their could trust to cover in man. Outside of one game, where they felt like they had a great feel for the opposing route-patterns, which I’ll get to soon.
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Yet, once again, that unit has stepped up in the postseason and the two things that stand out to me are defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s brilliant game-planning and their ability to stop one-dimensional offenses. When I look at what they did against the Browns, if you take away one 23-yard burst from Nick Chubb, Cleveland’s elite running back duo was held to 78 yards on 18 carries, as Spagnuolo gave their opponents a lot of looks that they didn’t want to run into and then had a safety drop out of the box late. Then in the AFC title game, to take away Buffalo’s dynamic passing offense (which ranked top three in all major categories), they played a lot of cover-two and two-man, where their DBs pressed the hell out of the Bills receivers and then they played a lot of different versions of those two-high shells, like invert cover-two or bringing Tyrann Mathieu down as the MIKE in Tampa-two basically, which forced Josh Allen to hold onto the ball. What I can promise you is that they aren’t afraid of bringing heavy pressure and then having their coverage defenders well-schooled in the concepts they should focus on taking away primarily while the Honeybadger is often allowed to move pretty freely as the robber. Frank Clark hasn’t quite lived up to his contract, but he has had big moments in the playoffs these last two years, Chris Jones is one of the most disruptive interior D-linemen in the game, who they can move all over the line, and they have several big bodies they can rotate through to stay fresh and eat double-teams.
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Chiefs offense vs. Bucs defense:

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As much as we all love the Kansas City offense and we see them as this unit that blows us away with flashy play-designs and throws over the top, they have really been alternating their approach over the course of the season as well. When you go all the way back to their season-opener against the Texans, you see that they used more of a West Coast and RPO-oriented attack to punish a defense that played a lot of soft zones and invited them to throw the ball short. However, two weeks later at Baltimore, they were destroying the Ravens’ single-high safety and man-coverage principles by letting their speedy receivers streak down the field and call double-moves at 15+ yards of depth. Then three weeks after that, when they found themselves in a rainy setting at Buffalo against a soft interior run defense, they pounded the ball 46 times for almost 250 yards on the ground. So they have shown the ability to adapt to their opponents. However, with several injuries on the offensive line – most notably a turnstile at left guard and those two tackles, which will now both be out for the Super Bowl – and opposing defenses taking the approach of using a lot more split-safety looks and trying to take away the big play, they have turned back into being more methodical in their plan and putting together long drives. In the AFC Championship game in particular, with Patrick Mahomes coming off a turf toe injury, their gameplan and drive charts look almost like what they used to with Alex Smith, in terms of the West Coast designs and those glance or slant routes on the backside of RPO concepts.
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When you look at this KC offense, they have had large stretches of getting static in games and as great as they are at moving the ball between the 20s, they are only 14th league-wide in red-zone touchdown percentage (61%). Some people may not realize this, but since their week eight blowout win over the Jets, they had not won a game by more than six points until the AFC title game. That is due to a combination of tendency to start slow, their poor red-zone efficiency and the inability to run the ball consistently with all the movement they have had on the O-line, having rushed for 135+ yards just three times all season. With that being said, Darrell Williams has been a big factor as a power runner these playoff and rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire should be back to full health. In addition to that, they find other ways to put the ball in the hands of their skill-players quickly, using the speed of their receiving crew on bubbles and speed sweeps, to go along with well-designed longer-developing screens, such as the double swing-fake and then middle screen to Travis Kelce. They also use their star tight-end quite a bit on those power shovels in short-yardage situations and I believe their most effective run play is the speed option, because of the way Mahomes can manipulate that end-man at the line.
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While I have seen them run anything from 23 personnel to going empty with Kelce detached from the line (so basically a five-wide situation), there are a few things the Chiefs love to run. Their go-to formation is a three-by-one set with Kelce as the single receiver, mostly flexed out wide, but also in-line. In 2019 they ran three verticals from that trips side and then had Kelce on a shallow crosser over and over again. This year they still run it quite a bit, but they let the tight-end run more corner or curl routes, to allow inside receivers from the other side attack the middle of the field and isolate their backs against the linebackers, in addition to running power that way. And then they motion someone like Tyreek Hill or Mecole Hardman across, which for the most part gets opposing defense to move into two-high coverages and play off. So if KC runs either one up the seams, there’s usually a ton of space underneath. The two things that take this offense to the next level however, are trick plays and off-script production. What makes Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy great is not only their ability to exploit defensive schemes, but they are so creative and don’t shy away from throwing reverse passes, underhand shovels to their fullback or digging up tape from the 1948 Rose Bowl. And then there’s all the thing Mahomes can do off script. That guy is so slippery to extend plays while continuing to look downfield and his pass-catchers are so adept at adjusting on the fly and finding the open areas, especially that sixth sense-like connection he has with Kelce.
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I have been higher on the Bucs defense for pretty much the entire year, which was really up and down for them as a unit. They have had moments of dominance, like keeping three straight opponents to under 50 rushing yards each or holding Green Bay’s number-one ranked offense to just 10 points in their regular season meeting, but they also gave up a combined 72 points in their first two meetings with the Saints and got lit up for over 450 yards through the air when hosting these same Chiefs back in week 12 (I’ll analyze that matchup in detail in our next segment). During this playoff run however, they have really stepped up in big moments to get them to this point. Whether it’s forcing four turnovers at New Orleans or sacking Aaron Rodgers five times and making a historically great red-zone offense settle for a couple of chip-shot field goals at Green Bay. When you look at their duo of edge rushers, Shaq Barrett is tied for the lead-league in QB hurries (24) and only three players in the NFL (all DBs) have forced more turnovers than Jason Pierre-Paul (six). Then they have the most dynamic linebacker tandem in all of football, which are heavily involved in their pressure packages and make it nearly impossible to get outside the tackle box in the run game, and now with Vita Vea back in the lineup, they have a wall on the inside that nobody can run on consistently. That’s how they finished the regular season as the clear number one run defense in the league. The secondary has been the problem child at times, especially when defensive coordinator Todd Bowles has put them in pure man-coverage, but by moving their safeties around more to bracket and help in certain areas of the field, they have really improved in that department.
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Bowles is an aggressive play-caller by nature and they have created a lot of problems for opposing offenses by bringing one more than you can block (blitzed on 39% of plays). It has bitten them in their behind at times as well, but from what I have seen on tape, they have been more strategic in how they use it. Especially on third downs, I love how they have used their safeties as moving pieces, having them key on certain areas of the field or defending the sticks. In the NFC Championship game for example, one of the biggest plays of the afternoon was that Aaron Jones fumble at the start of the second half, when the Packers thought they had defeated the man-coverage with a shallow crosser to Jones whilst picking the underneath coverage, but Jordan Whitehead raced up from the other side of the field and jarred the ball loose just as the RB tried to turn upfield and convert on third down. That willingness to drive on routes is also apparent when they run quarters coverage and you see Whitehead and rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. break on the ball, looking to take somebody’s head off, while they are also heavily involved in their blitz packages. That combined with those guys coming off the edges, Ndamokung as a bully on the inside and a pretty unknown contributor in William Gholston has them ranking in the top five in sacks, pressure percentage, turnovers and tackles for loss.
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Examining the first matchup:

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Like I already mentioned, these two teams met back in week 12. The Chiefs jumped out to an early 17-0 lead in the first quarter, with Tyreek Hill racking up over 200 receiving yards over those 15 minutes already and the Bucs offense having just one combined first down over the first four possessions. Kansas City was in the red-zone once more mid-way through the second quarter, but a Shaquille Barrett strip-sack gave Brady & company the ball with some life and they were able to go on the board. That really got things to click and they fought their way back to being down only three, despite a couple of interceptions for Tampa Bay’s QB killing drives, because after scoring a touchdown on their initial try for the Chiefs, the Bucs defense really stepped up and held their opponents scoreless the rest of the way. However, Mahomes and Hill were able to run down the final four minutes and close the game, not giving Brady’s troops another chance, as they were coming off consecutive TD drives at the end, to secure a 27-24 victory.
While the Chiefs certainly took their foot off the gas pedal and tried to run the ball more, which KC outside of what Mahomes did, rushed for only 59 yards on 16 carries, I really thought this was a breaking point for Tampa Bay as a team. The offense started finding a groove and the only two drives that didn’t result in points from that final first half possession on, ended in picks. The defense on the other hand adjusted what they were doing in coverage and held that explosive KC attack to just ten points through the final three quarters. So while I think the result may be a little deceiving and the Chiefs could have easily won by double-digits, I look back at this as more of a launching pad for a team that has been the best in the NFC from that point on and now represents that conference in the big game, with a chance to learn from their early mistakes. Here are a few things that really stood out to me when they first met:
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When you look back at the ridiculous first quarter Tyreek Hill had at Tampa Bay, what really stands out is how much he was left one-on-one in coverage, often times with Carlton Davis, who has had a good season in general, but is a bigger corner who ran in the low 4.5s at the combine – no way can he keep up consistently against the fastest man in football. Davis did follow Tyreek for the most part, in particular when he was the single receiver or the #3 in that trips set with Travis Kelce soloed up on the opposite side. And the Chiefs did a great job of creating those one-on-ones with motions, where they moved Kelce in line or forced Davis to trail Hill, when he came across the formation from that trips alignment. Tyreek’s two long touchdown came on a subtle double-move after they motioned Kelce in and then on a streak across the field as the #3 from trips. That opened up the middle of the field later on for Kelce on hook and dig routes. Something else Kansas City did in the first half particularly was using more 12 and even 13 personnel than I had seen from them all season long. They still couldn’t run the ball a lick out of those sets, but they were effective in the passing game when used, especially chipping both those guys off the edges for Tampa, with one of the TEs and the running back.
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Tampa Bay called a lot of passing concepts with five-man protections early versus Kansas City bringing an array of blitzes (18 on 42 drop-backs). Especially on third downs, they were able to create at least one free rusher and then they had one or two defenders bailing out to take away the middle of the field. However, the Bucs made some very effective adjustments in the second half with hot-route to defeat those blitzes and putting that “bail defender” I will call it here in a bind, with a seam and spot route underneath for example. Of course the Chiefs still got two interceptions off Brady, that stopped promising drives, but when you look at what went wrong on those plays, first Ronald Jones overset to the outside trying to pick up Tyrann Mathieu off the edge, which led to an underthrown deep ball by Brady that was brought in by Bashaun Breeland along the sideline, as Scotty Miller got pushed out wide on his release, and then Mathieu got an INT of his own, as Mike Evans didn’t recognize the pressure and the ball went off the helmet of a blitzing Daniel Sorensen. In general, they were able to get the ball out quickly – especially to their tight-ends – to take advantage of limited resources in coverage and on the final two drives, when KC brought heat almost every single snap, they were punished for it.
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What each team can take away:

A couple of adjustments that I already saw in the first meeting or that I would like to see for each team would be:
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For the Bucs, the one thing I want to see most is using more dummy counts to show pressure pre-snap and give Brady a clear picture. Whether they try to block it up with the tight-ends and backs in protection or alert the hot read, the more information they can get from a Spagnuolo defense that prides itself on disguising pressures and coverages, they more adept they will be at defeating those. Once they do that, this could turn into a chess match, where the Chiefs show something different intentionally to make Brady kill the original play and then have to pull the ball down anyway, as the picture changes once the snap is off. And something else they should take advantage of is isolating what is a below-average group of linebackers in the passing game. Their RB core isn’t overly impressive in terms of their receiving abilities, especially when you look at the amount of drops we have seen from Leonard Fournette, but maybe they dig LeSean McCoy out more for this matchup and see if he can win on option routes and Tampa actually put AB in the backfield a couple of times in the backfield in their prior meeting, only they ran him downfield on wheel routes.
Defensively I already saw some stuff that I really through quarters two to four, in terms of using their safety tandem to bracket Hill and Kelce on a lot of snaps and on key downs in particular, forcing the ancillary pieces of that offense to beat them. I will mention one of my X-factors and his role in how that “gamble” could end up in the next segment, but those two guys accounted for 55.5 percent of Kansas City’s total passing yardage. So it’s certainly a chance worth taking and if you go with a game-plan, where your two stand-up guys on the second level are more involved in covering space underneath, as Tyreek may be utilized as more of a decoy that runs off the deep coverage, you can eliminate a lot of yardage after the catch, since teams that rush four and play coverage have been the ones giving the Chiefs some issues at times. However, that doesn’t mean that I don’t want the Bucs to not use their linebackers as blitzing threats. They should try to cover up the open gaps with those guys and create one-on-ones across the board, to enable their edge rushers to dominate against KC’s backup tackles. And something the Browns against them a few times, which I really liked, was rushing four or five, but not giving up assets in coverage, as they had somebody drop out to replace those blitzers and still create a free rusher.
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On the Chiefs’ side, I really liked the plan of chipping those two guys off the edges, as I already discussed, with an extra tight-end on the field, and while they are a spread-oriented offense, they had a lot of success when they used 12 personnel and threw the ball out of those looks. Because you can’t cover the whole field and have to take away what Kansas City sends vertically, those TEs and backs are often times all by themselves as they release into the flats. If that happens, like it did in their prior meeting, Mahomes has to take the free yardage and open up the deeper areas of the field again, as the Bucs have to re-adjust. The other thing I can tell you for sure is that the Bucs are obviously terrified of Tyreek burning them deep again and I’m sure there won’t be many chances to just attack their corners in man-coverage for big plays. So if they give Hill a lot soft cushions, they have to repeat what did to the Bills’ Tre’Davious White in terms of getting him the ball quickly on smoke routes and forcing those guys to tackle their electric receiver. While vertical prowess has to be used as a decoy, in terms of putting him in the slot of those three-by-one sets and having him run up the seam, while you attack underneath that. If you get Mecole Hardman one-on-one with their third-best CB on a post-corner route, while the flanker runs a hitch or square-in to bind the guy on the outside, that could be free money.
When I switch to defense, they had a ton of success bringing the blitz and not allowing Brady to step into throws. I would certainly say they were happy with that game-plan and they have reason to feel confident in the guys they have on the back-end, with the way they have showed out so far in the postseason. However, I have now talked about this at length and the Bucs have watched that tape over and over again. There is no way, those guys will be as ill-prepared to counter those pressure packages as they were back in November. Hell, Brady was dicing them up in the fourth quarter and I just detailed how those two picks came about. So Steve Spagnuolo can still bring the heat in certain situations and test Tampa Bay in their ability to pick up the blitz, but he has to be more strategic in how he uses it. The second thing to consider here is how you mask those linebackers, when you decide to utilize them more in coverage. Those players can be very effective as downhill thumpers in the run game, taking on pulling guards and filling holes, but they aren’t great in space. The Raiders in their two matchups against Kansas City had a lot of success attacking that area of the field with crossing routes. Chris Godwin and Gronk would be guys for that task, so maybe if you have them to one side, the opposite linebacker is the one you blitz and you bring down Sorensen or Mathieu to replace him in that hook-area, while looking to pick up anybody working across the field.
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X-factors:

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Buccaneers – Aaron Stinnie & Jamel Dean

I’m not going to give you a name like Scotty Miller here, because at this point, he is more likely to catch at least one deep ball than not. Ronald Jones’ health will be key as well, to give the Bucs that physical one-two punch out of the backfield. However, I’m going with their starting right guard Aaron Stinnie, who just got his first two starts of the year during these playoffs. The Bucs O-line has been dominant over the course of this seven-game win streak, like I already mentioned, holding opponents to just 11 sacks combined in those games and an average of 115 rushing yards during these playoffs, despite some tough competition. Alex Cappa was one of the road-graders on the interior for Tampa and only missed three total snaps throughout the regular season, before fracturing his ankle mid-way through their Wildcard game at Washington. Stinnie has since stepped since then and played pretty well, but he was also responsible for the only sack on Brady in the NFC Championship game at Green Bay, when Kenny Clark went right through him on a bull rush. Well, the challenge will not get any easier, as I’d expect the Chiefs to line up Chris Jones in the B-gap as much as possible and try to exploit that matchup, on passing downs in particular. That’s why it will be crucial for Tampa Bay to stay ahead of the chains, unlike they did in the first matchup, and slow the rush down a little bit. Good thing Stinnie is lined up in-between arguably the top rookie right tackle of 2020 in rookie Tristan Wirfs and one of the better centers in Ryan Jensen, who will be looking to land a rib-shot on the guy over Stinnie, on the snaps that he is uncovered for.
As for the Bucs defense, that whole group of corners will have to step up in a major way, as they hope to slow down this explosive KC passing attack. Obviously, Carlton Davis’ name will come up a whole lot early on during the broadcast, as Tony Romo and Jim Nantz show what Tyreek Hill did to him early on in that week 12 meeting, and I could see Hill be matched up with Sean Murphy-Bunting in the slot a whole lot as well, but since I expect the safety to that side to keep his eyes constantly on him, when he lines up inside and makes it easier to bracket to some degree. Instead, I’m looking at Jamel Dean, who primarily is Tampa Bay’s field-side corner, unless they have Davis travelling with the opposing team’s number one receiver in certain matchups, which I wouldn’t expect, as the Bucs coaches go back to the tape of that first matchup. If Todd Bowles is smart – and from what I’ve seen from his as a coach, as much as aggressiveness may have hurt him at times, he is – he will build on what they did in the second half of that last game, when he used his two safeties to bracket Hill and Kelce almost every snap and forced the rest of that receiving corp to beat them. That puts the spotlight on guys like Sammy Watkins if they line him up more at Z, Demarcus Robinson and others, as those guys will pretty much be one-on-one with Dean. While the coverage numbers would indicate otherwise – in part because he draws the easiest assignments – to me he is the weakest link of this secondary and has been highly vulnerable to double-moves. The Chiefs might be burn him once more on Sunday.
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Chiefs – Andrew Wylie & Juan Thornhill

I thought about going Sammy Watkins here for the Chiefs offense, because he hasn’t suited up for them since week 16 and he hasn’t caught at least five passes in a game since week three, but averaged almost 100 receiving yards during last year’s playoff run. And you should also get accustomed with who wears number 48 for them, because Nick Keizer may have only caught six passes through the regular season, but he has become KC’s TE2 on the depth chart, playing just over a quarter of the snaps, and he could have a key role as an extra protector or chipping those edge rushers. Instead, I’m going with KC’s new starter at right tackle, who was slotted in at RG for all but one game so far. With blindside protector Eric Fisher unfortunately tearing his Achilles late in the AFC title game, Mike Remmers – who originally replaced Mitchell Schwartz on the right end of the line – is now switching sides and Andrew Wylie is sliding one spot outside. And he will face a tough task, after only having started one game on the edge against the Saints and now getting a heavy load of Shaq Barrett, who primarily rushed off that side. Let’s see if Wylie has the quickness in his kick-slide to counter Barrett’s speed and if the latter can get him on a dip-maneuver, like he beat Eric Fisher for a strip-sack on when these two teams last met. Steven Wisniewski will step in at Wylie’s original spot, but he has been one of the most dependable veteran linemen of the last decade in my opinion.
Defensively, I’m looking at the guy who missed Kansas City’s Super Bowl run last year, after an excellent rookie campaign. Their secondary was the star of the show against Buffalo, to send them to the Super Bowl, by disrupting route patterns at the line of scrimmage and not allowing receivers to separate late. A big reason they felt comfortable doing that was their safety tandem, with Tyrann Mathieu being in more of a robber role and dropping down in Tampa-2, to go along with the rangy Juan Thornhill, who broke up four passes and nearly picked off two of them. Steve Spagnuolo has those safeties doing a ton of late rotations, bailing Daniel Sorensen out for two-high shells, Honeybadger turning into a freely roaming robber and often times Thornhill ending up as the deep middle safety. As a single-high defender, he makes it almost impossible to push the ball down the hashes and he has the ability to make plays outside numbers. That will be crucial against all the deep balls Tampa Bay attempts and if one of those corners loses Mike Evans or Antonio Brown off the line by lunging in press, he could be the guy who decides if there will be a 40+ yard gain or maybe even an interception, if Brady puts too much air under the ball and tries to give his receiver time to track it. I can’t wait to watch that chess game between the Chiefs’ second-year safety and the ultimate student of the game in Brady, who will try to manipulate him with his eyes and body language, in order to keep the defender away from where he wants to go with the ball.
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Prediction:

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On paper, the Bucs have the better and healthier roster at this moment. You look at the offensive line in particular, where they still have four of their day one starters, while the Chiefs’ only full-time starter at his original position is center Austin Reiter and they will have two guys at those tackle spots, that have barely never played there for Kansas City. In terms of pass-catchers, it’s hard to argue that you could put anybody above the Chiefs group of track stars, but you don’t need a full hand to count off the teams that you would put ahead of the Bucs. There is also a pretty clear advantage on the defensive line for the home team, when you look at them being top three in pressure percentage, while KC is outside the top ten. And while I would give the Chiefs the nod in terms of the back-end, seeing how they have stepped up so far this postseason at full health, the Bucs’ group has made plenty of plays to take them to the Super Bowl and linebacker is not even a competition, watching Devin White and Lavonte David fly around the field. And of course, they have the number one rush defense, while the Chiefs rank 21st, and they are both average at running the ball themselves.
Schematically, Tampa certainly has to make some adjustments, as I have already discussed in length, having solutions for the blitz packages Steve Spagnuolo will throw at them and not allowing the Chiefs two main weapons to beat them. Right now, I give the clear advantage to the reigning champs when it comes to the coaching staffs and as great as Brady has been for two decades now and the how clutch he has been on the game’s biggest stage, we may be witnessing the one guy, who has a chance of dethroning him one day as the GOAT. Spags has a proven track record of success against Brady and I’m sure Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy have been in the lab, cooking up new things to throw at the Bucs defense, figuring out ways to score points all four quarters, but in the end it comes down to Patrick Mahomes being able to make plays nobody else in football can. Shaq Barrett and JPP could have a field day against these two backup tackles and I think Todd Bowles will also have a couple of things up his sleeves that the Chiefs haven’t seen, but last year’s Super Bowl MVP is the ultimate equalizer. He will shake out of a sack and find Kelce for a huge third-down conversion and he will have another like twelve-step drop and fire a deep ball off his back-foot to break Tampa’s neck.
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Chiefs 34 – Bucs 28

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So give me the Chiefs here and I’ll take the chalk with Mahomes earning MVP honors, winning back-to-back titles and setting the foundation for a potential dynasty in Kansas City.
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If you enjoyed this breakdown, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece!
Also make sure to check out my video on the ten biggest questions heading into Super Bowl LV!

Santa Cruz is set to tip-off their 2021 season today against the Ignite Team. Thirteen players will be suiting up for the Sea Dubs including two-way player Nico Mannion and assignees, Jordan Poole and Alen Smailagić. While those three might be well known by Warriors fans who've watched them play with Golden State, hopefully this post can shed some light on the other 10 players who make up the main squad. The G-League doesn't generally get a lot of attention or recognition from NBA fans, but if guys like Damion Lee, Juan Toscano-Anderson, and Mychal Mulder have shown anything, it's that there is talent lurking down there and it's a great place for young players to develop.
Notes on the G-League Season:

• 15 games (not including the playoffs)
• Top 8 teams will advance to single-elimination Playoffs
• Santa Cruz's Schedule
• Santa Cruz's Roster

Jeremy Lin

Point Guard, 32 years old, 6′3, 200lbs
Lin is of course a very familiar face for Warriors fans. The Bay Area native, as an undrafted rookie, appeared in 29 games for Golden State during the 2010–11 season and would go on to become a tenured veteran in the NBA. However, a ruptured patellar tendon suffered at the beginning of the 2017–18 season would sideline Lin for that remainder of that campaign and the effects would carry over into the following season in which Lin struggled on the court with the Atlanta Hawks and Toronto Raptors, temporarily putting a hold on his NBA career.
Following a solid showing in the CBA last year putting up 22.4ppg, 5.6rpg, 5.6apg on .493/.335/.822, a now-healthy Lin is looking to make his way back to the NBA and hopes this path with Santa Cruz will be his opportunity to do so.
Playstyle
Lin is well known as a scoring guard who operates out of the PNR with a quick first step and playmaking ability. He will be looking to show that he still possesses those skills at the NBA-level following concerns he had lost his quickness due to injury.
He is a career 34.2% three-point shooter and has never shot over 37.2% in a season, including last year in the CBA where he 33.5% from the outside on 173 attempts, so he should not be expected to start draining them, but he won't be asked to do so either with elite marksmen such as Hannahs, Taylor, and Wesson on the roster.
Lin has left much to be desired on the defensive end throughout his NBA career, but was recently a finalist for Defensive Player of the Year in the CBA so it will be interesting to see how much he has improved and what he can offer on that end.
Expectations
Lin is expected to start for Santa Cruz at point guard and is most likely hoping to only have to play a few games before getting signed by an NBA team looking for a veteran point guard, a team like the Magic, who have been riddled with injuries at that position, for example. For those who watched Santa Cruz last season, Lin will take on the role that was Jeremy Pargo's as the veteran who runs the offense and is the default scoring option.

Dusty Hannahs

Shooting Guard, 27 years old, 6′3, 210lbs
Hannahs is an undrafted guard out of Arkansas. He's spent the last three seasons in the G-League with the Memphis Hustle averaging 14.5ppg, 2.0rpg, 1.7apg on .460/.435/.917 and was named to the All-G League Third Team last season. He's also been in-and-out of the Memphis Grizzlies on a couple of 10-Days throughout the past 2 years. Santa Cruz traded for his rights ahead of the 2021 G-League draft.
Playstyle
Hannahs is a lights out shooter. Through three seasons in the G-League he shot 43.5% from deep on 648 attempts. He's capable of both spotting up for catch-and-shoot threes and pulling up from off-the-dribble. He has a decent handle which allows him to create separation, and his shooting threat and speed gives him an edge when driving to the basket. He has steadily improved as a finisher over the years, but will still throw up some wild shots driving into traffic. He also isn't much of a playmaker. When he drives he doesn't look to pass and has too much tunnel vision.
Hannahs is a bit undersized for a wing at 6'3 which makes him limited defensively where he leaves much to be desired. He's not very good as an on-ball or off-ball defender. He will occasionally ball watch and lose track of his assignment and often reacts a bit too slowly to how the play develops. He also isn't much of a rebounder and doesn't do a great job of positioning or boxing out. He also isn't very good at fighting over screens or offering much as a help defender, which is more of an issue of lack of effort and focus. He will have to improve on this side of the ball if he hopes to make it at an NBA level.
Expectations
Hannahs would've started in the backcourt with Lin, but with Mannion and Poole assigned, he will be relegated to a bench role, playing at times as a 2 or 3. As one of the more tenured players on the roster, his G-League experience will be valuable for the team and he should see a lot of minutes provided he can offer more off-the-ball and defensively than he has shown so far. Hannahs has already established himself as an elite G-Leaguer and has flirted with the NBA, so if he can put together another solid season and make improvements in the areas he needs to, there's a good chance he can find himself on a two-way deal in the near future.

Ryan Taylor

Small Foward, 26 years old, 6'6, 190lbs
Taylor is a 4-year college player who went undrafted in 2019. He was selected with the 24th pick in the 2019 G-League draft by the Lakeland Magic, but was cut in training camp. He joined Santa Cruz as a mid-season acquisition from the available player pool and would go on to appear in 22 games where he averaged 9.2ppg, 2.0rpg, 0.6apg on .456/.430/1.000 coming off the bench. He was put on the radar of Warriors fans when he was invited to participate in the Dubble and shot the lights out during their televised scrimmage, putting up 18 points with 6 threes.
Playstyle
Taylor is a knockdown shooter who usually hangs around the corner and moves around off-the-ball a decent amount. He doesn't handle the ball or create a lot for himself, but has a pull-up midrange jumper off a down screen he likes to go to and a floater alternative as well. Outside of that, he hasn't driven a lot or showed off his finishing, but he is deceptively athletic and can throw it down. He's not really a playmaker, but he's a smart player who will make the right passes and not play out of his comfort zone.
He's not any sort of lockdown defender, but he does enough defensively where he can bother players on-ball and stick with them, fighting through screens and using his athleticism and lateral speed. He does a good job of forcing players into tough shots and not giving them anything easy. He's also a smart team defender, who knows when to rotate and help. Overall he projects as a 3&D wing who doesn't do more than he's capable of and plays within the flow of the game. He would fit in well at Golden State.
Expectations
Taylor most likely would've started, but with the assignment of Jordan Poole and based on scrimmage tape, it seems he will be coming off the bench instead, playing a big role as the backup small forward. At 26 years of age, having just started his pro career, Taylor is looking for a late-bloomer career arc similar to that of Damion Lee. Having impressed last season in limited time, this season will be a better opportunity for Taylor to move into a bigger role and establish himself as a starting quality G-League player with the hopes of receiving a training camp invite from Golden State next season and being a candidate for a two-way spot. As a 3&D archetype, he's arguably the most interesting prospect on this roster for Warriors fans to watch out for as a potential future Golden State player.

Axel Toupane

Power Foward, 28 years old, 6'7, 196lbs
Toupane is a French wing who went undrafted in 2014 and has become a well-traveled journeyman. He played 2 seasons in the G-League with Raptors 905 where he averaged 15.4ppg, 4.8rpg, 3.6apg, 1.1spg on .446/.329/.798. He's also played 29 games in the NBA on a couple of 10 Day and ROS deals with the Nuggets, Bucks, and Pelicans, and spent the last three seasons playing overseas in Lithuania, Greece, Spain, and France. Most recently he appeared with the Warriors in pre-season, where he saw a handful of minutes.
Playstyle
On offense, Toupane likes to spot up in the corner or move from wing to wing in hopes of receiving the ball off a drive-and-kick for an open 3. He didn't shoot the 3-ball well during his time in the G-League, but overseas his percentages looked better from year-to-year and he is capable of knocking them down at a low volume. He doesn't have the ball in his hand often, but seems to have a pretty good handle and likes to take defenders off-the-dribble and either beat them to the rim or pull up for a jumper. He especially loves to slash in transition and due to his speed, length, and athleticism can blow by defenders with ease and finish in traffic with an array of acrobatic moves. He doesn't necessarily seem like a playmaker, but can make some good read for a wing and likes throwing lobs.
Defensively he's a pretty good on-ball defender who can bother opposing ballhandlers with his length and lateral quickness. His size makes him versatile and capable of matching up fairly well with 1-4s. Oubre is a good comparison in that regard. He also seems to have a decent read of passing lanes and can use his length to get a hand on the ball and burst out for a transition dunk.
Expectations
Toupane is expected to start at power forward. Although he's played as a 2/3 for most of his career, Santa Cruz likes to play small and Toupane is the 3rd tallest player on the roster after Mawugbe and Wesson. Golden State even played him at the 4 during pre-season which makes him the obvious choice to start there, coupled with his experience. As the second oldest player after Lin, Toupane will have a very important and big role in this squad both on and off the floor.

Kaleb Wesson

Center, 21 years old, 6'10, 253lbs
Wesson is an undrafted big out of Ohio State where he averaged 12.9ppg, 7rpg, 1.6apg on .495/.385/.729 over 3 seasons. He was well regarded by draft experts and many thought he could get picked in the second round or at least grab a two-way contract. However, he would join the Warriors for training camp where he didn't get much playing time and wasn't able to impress.
Playstyle
Wesson biggest attraction is his stretch 5 ability. He's a good outside shooter who shot 42.5% from deep in his final year on 106 attempts and did well in all the combine shooting drills. He finished first in one of the drills making 80% of his attempts. He gets most of his threes out of pick-and-pops around the top of the key and wings and that's most likely where he'll be money from moving forward. Wesson doesn't create a lot of offense for himself, but he does have a post hook and post fadeaway he likes to go to with moderate success. Otherwise, his finishing is a bit poor. For someone with his size and strength, he goes pretty weak to the rim and gets rejected far too often. He also doesn't have leaping ability to go up for lobs and rim-run, a bit Looney-like in that regard. He does however have great court vision and will make some eye-catching reads especially out of the post and elbow, and off the short roll. He seems like he has the potential to become a really good playmaker for a big.
Defensively he's limited due to his size and athleticism. He is slow and doesn't have good verticality. He struggles when switched out to guards due to his lack of lateral speed and gets beaten pretty easily. He's not much of a rim protector or shot blocker, but makes up for his deficiencies with relatively high defensive BBIQ and active hands. He has a good feel for when to reach in for a block or steal. He's also a good rebounder who boxes out and positions well, and uses his size and strength to neutralize opponents and pin them under the basket out of position.
The best comparison for him might be like Boris Diaw. Although I haven't watch Boris in a while, but I remember him as a stocky big man who was a good passer and could knock down a 3-ball. That's kind of the mold he's looking to fulfill in the NBA.
Expectations
Wesson will start at center while Smailagić is out and then become his primary backup. He'll be looking to at the least establish himself as a starting-level G-Leaguer and potentially play well enough to have a shot at earning a two-way for next season. Stretch bigs are a premium and if he can show that his shot translates to the next level, he should definitely get some NBA teams interested. Outside of Taylor, he's arguably the most interesting non-assignee for Warriors fans to watch. He's the youngest player on this roster, but also one of the ones with the most potential to become an NBA level player, and his passing, outside shooting, and defensive BBIQ would make him a great fit for Golden State and an answer to the Mo Speights/David West type big they're looking for.

Isaiah Reese

Point Guard, 24 years old, 6'5, 185lbs
Reese is a 3-year college player who after going undrafted in 2019 joined the Houston Rockets for Summer League. He was selected with the 6th pick in the 2019 G-League draft by the Austin Spurs and was traded to Santa Cruz on draft night for Kavion Pippen. Reese played 42 games coming off the bench and averaged 7.0ppg, 2.7rpg, 2.7apg on .408/.343/.667 his rookie season.
Playstyle
Reese doesn't necessarily seem to excel at any one specific skill but he seems to have an all-around skill set that if developed properly could turn him into a useful player. He's big for a point guard at 6'5 and can bother opposing point guards with his size defensively. He relatively does a good job on the defensive end, although he has a tendency to gamble a little too much and go for steals he shouldn't. He will occasionally lose track of his assignments and forget to box out, but if he can improve his awareness and focus, he projects to be a decent defender, at least at a G-League level.
Offensively, as I said above, he has an all-around game. He's shown some playmaking chops, capable of making good reads, but he also turns the ball over a fair amount and needs to learn to pick his spots better. He can shoot the 3-ball, but he's only really around a 35% outside shooter and shouldn't be taking them unless he's open in the corner. He can finish inside and has shown some finesse with his layups, but he doesn't go in strong and struggles to get to the line, only attempting 6 free throws in 810 minutes last season. I would compare him to his teammate from last season, Andrew Harrison, as a sort of big point guard who can kind of do a bit of everything, just none of it at an elite level yet.
Expectations
Last season was a primarily developmental one for Reese, as he got his feet wet at the pro-level. The Santa Cruz staff seemed to take a liking to him and would spend, what seemed like extra time, working specifically with him. He seems like someone they believe is a long term prospect. This season he should have a bigger role on the team as one of the guard options off the bench and should see plenty of game time. It will be a good opportunity to establish himself as a G-League level player and maybe play himself into a starting role next season with this team.

Zach Norvell Jr.

Shooting Guard, 23 years old, 6'5, 206lbs
Norvell played two seasons at Gonzaga before signing a two-way deal with the Los Angeles Lakers after going undrafted in 2019. He would see limited time with the Lakers and would be waived in December of that year to make room for Devontae Cacok. Apart from a single 10-Day contract, where he endeared himself to some Warriors fans, Norvell spent the bulk of the season playing in the G-League with South Bay and then Santa Cruz. He finished his rookie season averaging 14.7ppg, 4.6rpg, 2.9apg on .395/.387/.814.
Playstyle
Norvell is an athletic, scoring wing who can shoot fairly well. In the G-League he shot 39% from deep and shot 37% in college. Although his shot selection could be a little better, he's more than capable of knocking down catch-and-shoot threes in the corner, as well as, pulling up off-the-dribble. He has a good handle on him and although he is not necessarily a playmaker, he has shown that he can make some good reads and can excel as a secondary ballhandler and creator on the floor. Although his jumper is his calling card, he can also finish inside with his athleticism and finesse, but again his shot selection could be a little better there too as he'll take the ball into trouble a little too often.
Norvell seems like a decent defender. He's not any sort of liability, but he also isn't going to lock down anyone. He does a good job of fighting over screens and sticking with his man, but will still lose track of his assignments from time-to-time, and could do more when challenging shots to make them tougher. He has active hands at least and can come up with a couple of steals. For a guard, he's also pretty good about making sure to box out when the shot goes up.
Expectations
The Warriors acquired Norvell last season for Santa Cruz after they were impressed with him while he was on his 10-Day and felt he was an intriguing, young prospect worth bringing in and developing. Norvell will be one of the go-to players off the bench and have a fairly big role. Among the young players, he is one of the more intriguing ones to watch out for and could potentially find his way back on a two-way in the near future.

Elijah Pemberton

Shooting Guard, 23 years old, 6'5, 195lbs
Pemberton is an undrafted wing who finished his career at Hostra last season with 15.4ppg, 4.7rpg, 2.1apg on .448/.387/.788 over his 4 years. He was a last-minute sign-and-waive for the Warriors after they were unable to receive Lin's FIBA Letter of Clearance in time, and most likely wouldn't have made the roster otherwise.
Playstyle
Based on watching some of his film, Pemberton projects to be a long-term project. He's a big athletic guard/wing with a handle and decent shooting touch, especially on pull-up 3s (career 39%), but his game leaves a lot more to be desired outside of that. He does not seem comfortable at all finishing inside and consistently will drive into traffic and throw up a hopeless wild shot. Showing both poor decision making and poor technique. Although he only averaged 2.1 assists per game during his college career, based on a film he seems to have the potential to do better in that area. He doesn't necessarily seem to have natural court vision, but can make some good reads from time to time, and if he can hone in on that skill, he could become useful as a secondary creator on the floor.
Defensively due to his size and athleticism he has the potential to become a decent defender which could give him hope to make in the league one day as a 3&D wing, but for now, he has a lot to work on.
Expectations
Pemberton will most likely start the season as a deep reserve and not see much time on the court given that Santa Cruz is loaded with guards and small wings. At this point for him, the best thing is to just get consistent work in during practice and soak up as much information as he can. Depending on how well he progresses and if he shows potential he could return to next year's team and challenge for a more fixed role in the rotation.

Dwayne Sutton

Power Forward, 23 years old, 6'5, 220lbs
Sutton is an undrafted 4-year player out of Louisville who joined the Warriors for training camp this past December and is most memorable to fans for his monster dunk against the Kings during pre-season.
Playstyle
Sutton is a tweener. An undersized power forward who doesn't necessarily excel at any one thing or fit any set position, but is a gritty, versatile, and fierce competitor in the mold of a PJ Tucker or Draymond Green. Although small, he is athletic and long and is a good defender capable of guarding multiple positions and coming up with big plays.
On offense, he seems a little more limited. He shot the 3-ball at 34.3% during his college career at limited volume (338 attempts) and probably doesn't project to be a shooter or if so, his ceiling would seem like Tucker's as a corner specialist. He only averaged 1.3 assists per game over his career, but could potentially grow more as a playmaker. That number seemed a bit limited due to his low usage rate and based on some of the reads he made he seems like a capable and willing passer. He doesn't seem very comfortable creating off the dribble and doesn't seem to have any sort of reliable mid-range, both of which are areas he will need to work on to be able to make it at the next level.
Expectations
Of the three Exhibit 10's, Sutton seems the least ready to contribute right away so he probably won't have a large role but given how undersized the Warriors are, he should see a good amount of playing time primarily as Toupane's backup at the 4. It will be a good opportunity for him to show if he can stick in the G-League and add enough to his game to be a useable rotation piece moving forward.

Selom Mawugbe

Center, 22 years old, 6'10, 230lbs
Mawugbe is an undrafted standout from Divison II, Azusa Pacific, where he averaged 16.9ppg, 10.5rpg, 2apg, 3.1bpg, 1.1spg on 71.8% FG in his senior season. Mawugbe was the 21st pick in the G-League draft and the final addition to the Santa Cruz squad.
If you do a search for "Selom Mawugbe" on YouTube, outside of an interview and a workout clip, you will find one single highlight of a PNR lob finish. Nothing else. So in order to get some semblance of Selom's game, I watched a few of his Azusa Pacific games I could find.
Playstyle
Maguwbe seems to fit the archetype of a traditional center. On offense, he roams from block to block looking to post up or come out and set a screen for a teammate. When he does receive the ball, he's a willing passer and will make some good reads finding shooters out of the post. Due to his size and strength, he can outpower most players and finish inside, but he doesn't seem very comfortable creating his own offense and rarely does so. He also doesn't seem to have any sort of reliable jumper or at least is unwilling to let it fly (I think I saw him attempt maybe one jump shot through the film I watched).
He seems to be a more defensive-oriented player and does a good job of protecting the paint and keeping drivers at bay with his shot-blocking. He averaged around 3 blocks per game throughout his final 3 seasons at college and was routinely among the top shot blockers in D2. He communicates often with his teammates, which is important as Azusa seemed to run a primarily zone defense with Mawugbe anchored in the paint. He has enough athleticism and lateral speed to switch out to perimeter players and bother them, but he didn't do so often and is not a strong suit. He's also a good rebounder and looks to box out immediately as soon as the ball is up in the air.
Expectations
Mawugbe will most likely follow suit with Pemberton as another young player looking at a mostly developmental season. He will probably have more opportunities to play, however, as Santa Cruz is thin in the frontcourt and Smailagić isn't expected to play right away so he will need to backup Wesson. This season will be a good opportunity for Mawugbe to show if his game can translate to the next level, where he will no longer be able to dominate purely off of size and athleticism. His goal should be to establish himself as a G-League level player and challenge for a more fixed role in the rotation next season.

Projected Depth Chart

Pos.	Starter	Backup	Third String
PG	Lin	Reese
SG	Mannion	Hannahs	Pemberton
SF	Poole	Taylor	Norvell
PF	Toupane	Sutton
C	Smailagić	Wesson	Mawugbe

Based off of scrimmage clips it seems the Warriors are planning on rolling out a Lin-Mannion-Poole-Toupane-Wesson line-up to start the season, with presumably Wesson filling in for Smalagić temporarily. Lin and Mannion will most likely get the lion share of minutes at the 1 with Reese also getting some spot minutes and sometimes two of them will be on the court together. Poole, Hannahs, Taylor, and Norvell will be the wings playing 2/3 with Pemberton getting a sprinkle of minutes here and there. Toupane and Sutton will shore up the 4 spot and Smiley, Wesson, and Mawugbe will eat up the center minutes, although it will be interesting to see if they play any big line-ups with 2 of them on the floor (I also saw a line-up with Toupane at the 5 which was interesting).
This team seems to bode a lot of playmaking (Mannion, Poole, Lin, Wesson) and outside shooting (Hannahs, Taylor, Wesson, Norvell, Pemberton) so they should be fairly potent offensively. The defensive side of the ball will be more interesting to watch to see how well they can tighten up.
TLDR:
Lin - Veteran looking to return to the NBA, probably will not end up playing for Golden State
Taylor, Hannahs - Knockdown shooters, two-way contract candidates, ones-to-watch
Toupane - Veteran, athletic, defensive wing, could be a two-way contract candidate
Wesson - Knockdown shooter who can pass, young player with a lot of potential, maybe a future two-way candidate, one-to-watch
Norvell - Scoring, athletic wing, young player with a lot of potential, maybe a future two-way candidate, one-to-watch
Reese, Sutton, Pemberton, Mawugbe - G-League level projects
I was hoping to go a bit more in-depth with this and include some short video compilations, but was kind of pressed for time and wanted to post this before today's game. Hopefully, this will still give at least a general idea of what to expect from this roster. If there are any questions I can try to answer let me know.

Hey again everyone, fun slate yesterday with some good games, so lets get into it:
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• Maxey to the Max
  • In a game that was a surprising to be even played honestly, as the 76ers barley had the minimum players at and were without Simmons and Embiid, so the spotlight was on Maxey and he delivered in the loss with 39 points, 7 boards, and 6 assists on 18/33 shooting. That is probably the most amount of shots we will see from a rookie all season long, but it is clear the kid can play and this performance is bound to give him a real spot in this Sixers rotation
  • Jokic had a typical Joker type game with a 15/9/12 line in 29 minutes for Denver while Gary Harris had a team high 21 points on an efficient 7/11 shooting and 5/8 from three. Harris looked great out there and has had back to back decent games as he has scored 36 points over his last two games on 13/20. Harris is still not a fantasy option you can trust, especially with MPJ's imminent return, but it is encouraging to see him picking up his play

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• Herro, Jimmy, and Dragic Lead Heat Past Washington
  • Tyler Herro dropped in 31 points with 9 boards on 12/20 shooting, but 1/5 from three while Jimmy Butler dropped a near triple double with a 26/10/9 on 10/18 shooting with two steals and a block. He really just was too good for the Wizards team that was missing Westbrook, Beal, and Thomas Bryant went down very early in the game. Dragic also played great with a 21/2/5 line on 7/10 shooting and 7/9 from three, while starting the game 6/6 from three
  • Washington was missing pretty much there 3 best players this game and the game actually ended close in a 4 point game, but it really was not that close. The Heat were up 14 points with two minutes left in fourth and drilled three straight threes and scored a lay at the buzzer to make this game seem way closer than it was. Deni Avdija lead them with a 20/5/5/ line on 7/15 shooting and 5/9 from three in 31 minutes, with two of his threes coming in those final two minutes. Rather than the rookie report I will talk about him here, but Deni seems to be the main operator with no Russ or Beal, specifically in games without Russ he is averaging 13/7/3.6 in 31 minutes compared to 4.4/2.4/1.7 in 19 minutes. He is an interesting value play with no Russ, but he is untouchable with him on the court
  • No Thomas Bryant could mean that we see some value open in fantasy, the two options at C seem to be Robin Lopez who played a season 21 minutes tonight with 13 points and just one board on 5/6 shooting. The second being Moritz Wagner who did not look to bad in 19 points with 13 points and 7 boards before fouling out. Rui could also see more opportunity as well, he scored 17 points and had 5 boards in 25 minutes and he has looked solid and stronger this season.

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• Mikal Bridges' Career Night and the Suns take down Sabonis and the Pacers
  • Bridges looked incredible tonight and was on fire with a 34/3/2 line on 12/18 shooting and 6/8 from three on 35. Bridges has been seeing 33 minutes but this performance was something else as he has only had 20+ points once this season. Booker also was balling with a 25/3/7 line going 9/19 from the field. He has been seeing a pretty consistent scoring range scoring between 22-25 in his past 6 games, but as we have seen before could go absolutely snap for a monster game
  • Sabonis had a monster game with a 28 points and 22 rebound performance on 12/24 shooting and also adding 4 assists. His running mate Myles Turner also had double double with 15 points and 10 boards on 6/8 shooting with 4 blocks, he played great on defense on Ayton holding him to 8 points on 4/10 shooting and scoreless in the first half. The two big men play very well together, I am starting to wonder if there is a better 4/5 duo in the league than Sabonis and Turner,

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• Lamelo Ball Makes History as Hornets Handle Hawks
  • Lamelo Ball became the youngest player to ever record a triple-double at 19 years and 140 days old overtaking Markelle Fultz's claim to that achievement with a 22/12/11 line on 9/13 shooting on 3/5 from beyond the arc in a season high 31. He is just so exciting to watch on the court and has helped lead them to three straight wins and it is certainly encouraging to see his minutes start to increase. He is too good to hold back. Music to fantasy owners ears, Lamelo, Terry, and Devonte' all played 30+ minutes and Borrego had stated he wants to see them all more on the floor more together.
  • While the Hornets are trending up, the Hawks are going the complete opposite direction losing four straight and they were all very easily winnable games(Cavs,Knicks,Hornets). The two young stars who have apparently become disgruntled with each other each put up double doubles in the loss with a 15 point, 10 assist game for Young on 5/19 shooting and 0/5 from three, while Collins had 12 points and 10 boards in 30 minutes on 4/7 shooting. This was a team that started out hot and still has loads of talent so I would not necessarily count them out yet, it really just is that Trae Young needs to play better Heres a stat for y'all, Trae Young's turnovers to three pointers made in his past four games: 28 to 3.

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• Demar and the Spurs Spoil KAT's Return in OT
  • Demar DeRozan exploded for a season high 38 points with 5 boards and assists in 43 minutes on 13/23 shooting and had some impressive plays throughout the game including this clutch And-1(https://twitter.com/spurs/status/1348107949760249856?s=20) . He also went 13/14 from the stripe and continues to be a great fantasy option. Dejounte Murray looked good in the win as well with 22 points and 14 boards and 4 assists with a steal and a block
  • KAT returned and this team is just so much different. He looked real good out there with a 25/13/4 line on 9/17 shooting and 2/3 from three with 3 blocks in 37 minutes. It was nice to see him have no minutes restriction as well. Malik Beasley was on fire this game with 29 points ion 11/20 shooting while going 7/11 from three. Malik has been pretty solid, but he won't be leading this team in scoring much with KAT back. This was not a loss for TWolves to mad about, they looked pretty good with KAT back, better days ahead for them.

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• The Mavs Catch Fire vs the Magic
  • The short-handed Mavs took down the Magic with 75% of their scoring coming from THJ, Donic, and Burke. Tim Hardaway Jr. lead the team with a season high 36 points on 12/20 shooting and 8/13 from three. He caught fire in the third quarter scoring 16 of his points in that period, really just reminding me of that classic battle with Dion Waiters a few years back in the Rising Stars Game. Doncic dropped a triple double with a 20/11/10 line on 7/20 shooting, the only real negative with Luka right now is that his turnovers have been pretty rough(almost 7 a game over his last 4), but the good outweighs the bad. Trey Burke also had his best game of the season with 29 points on 11/13 shooting and 7/8 from three. The Mavs shot 20/40 from three with 18 of those coming from Hardaway Jr, Donic, and Burke and have won three straight as Porzingis grows closer and closer to returning
  • Vucevic was incredible in the loss with a 30 point and 15 rebound double-double on 14/24 shooting, that ties a season high from Vuc and he looked very confident on offense. His mid-range game is looking sharp this season and he has become even more of a force in the post. He is averaging a career best 22 points a game this season

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Quick Hitters
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• Kelly Olynyk is playing pretty well recently for the Heat. He had a 18/6/5 line tonight on 7/15 shooting and 4/11 from three with 1 block and 1 steal. He is averaging 16 points and 6.3 boards over his past three while going 12/24 from three in that span
• Garrison Matthews put up a season-high 22 points(really thought this would be a career high but he had 28 last year one time) in an also season high 23 minutes with Bryant going down
• Chris Paul is just so shifty and continues to prove himself to still have a lot in the tank as he is controlling this Suns team. He makes a huge difference for them, and he put in a 15/2/10 line on 6/10 shooting
• Cameron Johnson looked good off the bench with 16 points going 6/13 from the field and 4/10 from three with 4 boards and assists in a season high 29 minutes. Obviously he is more beneficial in Category leagues than points. He is not someone you can really trust yet, but will definitely help with threes.
• Malcom Brogdan continues to be just awesome with a 22/6/9 line on 7/20 shooting and 3/6 from beyond the arc. He just might be the most underrated point guard in the league
• Oladipo had a decent game with 16/6/4 line in 30 minutes, but had this monstrous dunk (https://twitter.com/BleacherReport/status/1348081576081383431?s=20)
• Deandre Hunter had another solid outing with 20 points and 8 boards on 6/12 shooting and 7/7 from the line. He also put up 1 steal and two blocks in the losing effort. He continues to honestly be a pretty consistent option and someone you can start especially Bogdanovic going out with a knee injury
• Cam Reddish was subbed out for Bogdanovic for this game actually but saw 33 minutes when Bogdanovic went down and put up 21 points on 6/17 shooting and 4/13 from three and picked up 4 steals. He is not a consistent option but should see more oppurtunies with no Bogdon.
• PJ Washington was efficient in the win over Atlanta with 22 ponits on 7/11 shooting and 6/6 from the line to go with 7 boards and 6 blocks. That makes it 11 blocks over his past three games. A more consistent offensive game would really help his case
• Keldon Johnson looked good tonight with a 17/9/4 line going 6/12 from the field in 41 minutes. That is three straight games with 30+ minutes for Johnson as Pop is trusting him a lot this season which bodes well for Johnson.
• Patty Mills continues to get buckets with 21 points on 8/14 shooting and 5/8 from three
• Naz Reid returned from the fantasy graveyard with 16 points and 7 boards with 3 blocks on 6/8 shooting while also hitting 3/4 three point attempts. This type of production is certainly not sustainable but Reid was hitting his shots for the TWolves tonight
• No Giannis meant it was the Khris Middleton show who put up a 25/5/6 line on an efficient 10/16 from the field and 3/6 from three. Middleton is always seeming to really hold his own
• Bobby Portis saw extrended run without Giannis in a season high 33 minutes putting up a 17 point 11 rebound double double while also snagging 4 steals. Seems hes a good value option on DFS when Giannis sits
• Andre Drummond put up a 26 point and 24 rebound night in the losing effort to the Bucks. I really find it hard to believe that all Drummond's value was John Henson and Brandon Knight, the Cavs got a steal here in my opinion honestly
• Damyean Dotson continues see ridiculous amount of minutes with the Cavs injuries and put up a 21/2/8 line in 41 minutes on 8/17 shooting. He is honestley streamable at this point if the injuries are still persisting for the Cavs, a way better option in points leagues than cat however
• CJ McCollum unleashed on the Kings with a 37/3/3 line on 13/22 shooting and 6/11 from three. He was deep in his bag and hitting some tough shots in the commanding win over Sacramento. Obviously last night's game greatly helps this, but McCollum is averaging a career high 27.9 point per game in his teams first 9 games
• With no Holmes due to left ankle soreness, Bagley and Whitside split the time at center for the Kings. Bagley put up 15 points and 8 boards on 5/14 shooting. He has been playing better as of recent though averaging 17 points per game over his past three on 51% shooting. Whiteside saw a season high 21 minutes with 11 points and 8 boards with a steal and block in a revenge game of sorts against Portland.

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Rookie Report

• Anthony Edwards
  • While Lamelo ball is getting his attention with his triple-double, Edwards continues to impress. He had a 13/4/4 line in 30 minutes for the Wolves on 5/11 shooting. He continues to struggle from beyond the arc going 1/4, but really looks good out there in general. His athletiscm and feel for the game really stand out. This kid is going to be starting by the end of the year and maybe sooner than later. If he can figure out his shot and be more efficient than he could be a decent fantasy option later this season. KAT completley changes the Timberwolves and makes them a competent team. Edwards is 62% own on Yahoo, if you have a roster spot to spare, which is not easy in these Covid times, and want to take the gamble on the rook then I'd stash him
• Tyrese Halliburton
  • Haliburton again looked pretty good out there for the Kings and is starting to prove himself more with each game he scored 12 points on 5/8 shooting to go along with 8 assists in 30 minutes. This is his second night in a row with 8 assists. He also had one steal, which extends a little streak of his to make it five straight games for a steal for Haliburton. He is averaging 2.2 steals a game over his last 5. Haliburton is really starting to make a case for himself in this early fantasy season
• Cole Anthony
  • Anthony continues to struggle a bit from the field with a 8/2/3 line in 32 minutes on 2/8 shooting and 1/5 from three. He makes some nice plays, but you would love to see the rook do more with his extended time on the court. He needs to find more consistency to become a fantasy option you can trust at this point
• Isaac Okoro
  • Okoro is another player you would like to see do more with the minutes he is getting. He saw 33 minutes and put up a 4/2/1 stat line on 2/8 shooting. While I do like Okoro as a player as he plays smart and hard and I do believe that he will end up to be a good player, he is not trustable in fantasy even with the heavy minutes.
• Precious Achiuwa
  • Precious only played 12 points and put in 7 points with 2 boards. Achiuwa has looked pretty good in his limited time to start out this season, him and Butler had a nice two man game running, he is a high motor type player and attacks the rim hard/is always ready for oops. He is a name to monitor and is a good handcuff to Bam if you have deep benches, but is not a necessity to add.

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What I Am Excited for Tonight

• KD Should be Returning to Action Tonight vs His Former Thunder Team
• Lebron and the Lakers take on Harden's Rockets
• We get an Eastern Conference rematch with the Heat and the Celtics, although Boston will be without Tatum
• Spurs and Twolves just battled it out last night and we get to watch them go at it again tonight

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Stud of the Night: Demar DeRozan(38 points, 5 assists, 5 rebounds, 13/23 shooting, 43 minutes
Dud of the Night: Devonte' Graham(9 points, 5 rebounds, 7 assists, 1/6 shooting, 3 turnovers, 32 minutes) Not exactly a horrible game, not too many candidates tonight
Rook of the Night: LaMelo Ball(22 points, 12 rebounds, 11 assists, 9/13 shooting, 31 minutes)
Quote of the Night: "F*ck it, let's go play" - Karl Anthony-Towns on what he said before tonights game
Bonus Quote: "Bro, you got to at least throw it up at the rim on that" -Doc Rivers on what he said to Tyrese Maxey after he passed up a shot when Doc drew up a play for him on the last possession to score 40 points
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That's it for today's edition, hope you enjoyed. Also I may be having some news for y'all soon and some future plans, but we will see how that goes so stay tuned for that
Link to Twitter: https://twitter.com/FantsyPowrHouse

As a basketball fan, it's always fun to speculate on the NBA Draft prospects. That said, I'd stress the speculate part of that statement. As an outsider with no real access to these players, it's hard to be arrogant and steadfast in our opinions. We're working with about 10% as much information as actual NBA teams. If you feel confident in your analysis based on some highlight tapes of James Wiseman dunking on South Carolina State or LaMelo Ball jacking up shots in the Australian League, god bless you. And if you want to read my amateur analysis, god bless you too. But before you do, remember to check your sodium levels and take these picks with a grain of salt.

BEST PROSPECTS in the 2019-20 NBA DRAFT

(1) SG Anthony Edwards, Georgia
Based on pure stats, Anthony Edwards would be one of the least impressive # 1 picks of all time. We're talking about a player who just averaged 19-5-3 on bad shooting splits (40-29-77) on a bad Georgia team. In fact, the Bulldogs didn't even crack .500 (finishing 16-16). All things considered, this isn't the resume of a top overall pick. It's like a kid with a 2.9 GPA applying to Harvard Law.
Still, the "eye test" helps Edwards' case in the same way it helped proud Harvard alum Elle Woods. Edwards has a powerful frame (strong and long with a 6'9" wingspan) and a scorer's mentality. He's going to be a handful for NBA wings to contend with, especially when he's going downhill. And while he hasn't shown to be a knockdown shooter, his form looks better than the results suggest. I'd project that he can become an average (35-36%) three-point shooter in time.
It may be unfair to label Edwards with the "best case scenario" comparison -- Dwyane Wade, for example -- but it may be just as unfair to liken him to "worst case scenario" comps like Dion Waiters as well. One of the reasons that Waiters is such an inefficient scorer in the NBA is that he's allergic to the free-throw line; he averages 3.1 FTA per 36 minutes. Edwards didn't live at the FT line, but he did get there 5.3 times per game. With more encouragement from an analytical front office or coaching staff, Edwards has the potential to get to the line 7-8 times a game and raise his ceiling in terms of efficiency.
The key for Edwards' career is going to be his work ethic and basketball character. As a prospect, he reminds me of Donovan Mitchell; in fact, he's ahead of where Mitchell was at the same age. That said, Mitchell is a natural leader who made a concerted effort to improve his body and his overall game. If Edwards can do the same, he has true All-Star potential. If he walks into the building thinking he's already a superstar, then he may never become one.
best fits
Anthony Edwards has some bust potential, but he also has true star potential. Given that, it'd be great to see him go to a team that's willing to feature him. Chances are he won't last this long, but he'd be a great fit for Charlotte (#3). The Hornets desperately need a signature star, and Edwards has the chance to be a 20 PPG scorer within a year or two.
worst fits
If Edwards falls in the draft, he may end up clashing with the talent on the teams in the 4-5 range. Chicago (#4) already has a scoring guard in Zach LaVine. Meanwhile, Cleveland (#5) has already doubled up on scoring guards with Collin Sexton and Darius Garland. Adding a third would be a potential headache, both offensively and defensively.
(2) C James Wiseman, Memphis
A true center? Gross! What is this, 1970?
Traditional big men tend to get treated that way these days. In some ways, they've become the "running backs" of the NBA. They once ruled the draft, but now they have to scrape and claw to climb into the top 5.
Still, let's no go overboard here. Even if centers aren't as valuable as they used to be, there's still some value here. Some of the best centers in the game (Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert, Joel Embiid, etc) have helped make their teams staples in the playoffs. Wiseman can potentially impact a team in the same way, especially on the defensive end. He can get beat on switches now and then, but he's about as agile as you can expect out of a kid who's 7'1" with a 7'6" wingspan. Offensively, he has an improving face-up game in addition to being a devastating lob threat.
Another reason that I'm comfortable with Wiseman in the top 3 is because he appears to be a smart kid with the will to improve his game. He intends to keep stretching out his range towards three point territory. Even if he can be a passable three-point shooter (in the 33% range), that should help make him a consistent 18-12 player and a fringe All-Star. And if not, then he'll still be a viable starting center.
best fits
We mentioned Charlotte (#3) as a great fit for Anthony Edwards, and I'd say the same for Wiseman here. His game complements the more dynamic P.J. Washington well; between the two of them, they'd have the 4-5 spot locked up for years. While Wiseman's best chance to be a star may come in Charlotte, we don't know if he truly has that type of aggressive upside. The more likely scenario is him being a pretty good starting center with an emphasis on defense. In that case, he makes some sense in Golden State (#2) and Atlanta (#6).
worst fits
Apparently James Wiseman doesn't want to go to Minnesota (#1), which makes sense given the presence of Karl-Anthony Towns. If he slips, Chicago (#4) may also be an odd fit. Wiseman is a better prospect than Wendell Carter Jr., but they're not terribly dissimilar. The new Bulls administration didn't select Carter, but it still feels too early to give up on a recent # 7 pick.
(3) PF/C Onyeka Okongwu, USC (HIGHER than most expert rankings)
Another big man? I may be showing my age here.
Still, I'm going to stick to my guns and suggest Onyeka Okongwu is a top 3 prospect in the class for some of the same reasons we ranked James Wiseman so highly. In fact, Okongwu is arguably an even better defensive prospect than Wiseman. While he doesn't have the same size (6'9" with a 7'1" wingspan), he's more switchable. He projects as a prowling, shot-blocking panther, not dissimilar to Bam Adebayo on Miami. Offensively, he flashes some solid skill here and there, although it's unlikely he'd get to Adebayo's level as a playmaker.
Another aspect that should help Okongwu is his selflessness. In high school, he played for Chino Hills alongside stars Lonzo and LaMelo Ball. While there, he blended in and did the dirty work for the LaVar Traveling Circus. It's likely that Okongwu will play a similar role in the NBA, complementing a star perimeter player.
While Okongwu may not have All-Star upside, I don't see much downside here. I'd be surprised if he's not a long-time starter at the center position (with the potential to play some PF if his shooting range improves.)
best fits
The most natural fits for Onyeka Okongwu mirror the best fits for James Wiseman. There’s a chance he may slip further than Wiseman too. Washington (#9) should be salivating if that’s the case.
worst fits
As a low-usage player, there aren't a lot of terrible fits for Okongwu on the board. However, Detroit (#7) already has Blake Griffin on a long-term deal and may re-sign Christian Wood as well. Given that, there wouldn't be much room for Okongwu barring a Griffin trade.
(4) PG LaMelo Ball, U.S./Australia. (LOWER than most expect rankings)
Every draft pick is an inherent gamble, but there's a difference between gambling in blackjack and gambling in Roulette. To me, LaMelo Ball is more of the latter.
No doubt, there's a chance that you may get lucky and "win big" with LaMelo Ball. He has great height for the position at 6'6"/6'7", and he makes some exceptional passes that illustrate a rare court vision. ESPN's Draft Express team ranks him as the # 1 prospect overall, and I take that seriously. Those guys were way ahead of the curve on calling Luka Doncic a transcendent talent at a time when most others were still skeptical.
At the same time, I'd say there is a sizable downside here as well. In fact, I'd estimate that there's a greater than 50/50 chance that Ball is a "bust" based on his current draft status.
LaMelo Ball put up good raw numbers this past season in the NBL -- 17.0 points, 7.6 rebounds, 6.8 assists -- but he was in a situation specifically designed for him to put up good numbers. The efficiency tells a different story, as his shooting splits (38-25-72) look worrisome. Yes, height helps on defense, but it doesn't matter much if you're not locked in on that end. And yes, highlight-reel passes and super-deep threes are fun to watch, but they're not a path to consistency on offense. As Ball makes the jump to the NBA, he may smack hard into a wall and crash into the water like was on Wipeout. There's a chance he'll be among the worst players (from an advanced stats perspective) as a rookie.
So what? We expect most rookies to struggle, right? That's true, but I'd be nervous about how LaMelo Ball and his camp would respond to those initial struggles. Again, I've never met the kid and have no real basis for this, but media interviews make him seem a little immature. That's totally understandable for a 19 year old, but it's not ideal for a 19 year old who's about to get handed the keys to an NBA franchise. If he struggles out of the gates, will he start to lose confidence? Will LaVar Ball start to make waves? Will the media gleefully tear him to shreds? No clue. And if I'm picking in the top 3, I'd prefer to have more confidence than question marks.
best fits
If we treat LaMelo Ball as a developmental project, then I'd prefer he land with a team like Chicago (#4). New coach Billy Donovan is a former PG himself, and spent decades working with young kids at the college level. If they slow play Ball's development, we may see the best of him down the road. Detroit (#7) also makes sense. Coach Dwane Casey has a pretty good reputation in player development himself, and he has a solid bridge PG in Derrick Rose to help buy Ball some time.
worst fits
Cleveland (#5) is an obviously wonky fit based on the current roster. I'd also assert that Charlotte (#3) is a poor fit as well. While the team desperately needs a signature star, they don't have the type of supporting cast that would be conducive to him right now. And if he struggles as a rookie, then coach James Borrego and the whole front office may be cleaned out. If that happens, a new administration would be inheriting a franchise player that they didn't pick in the first place.
(5) SF/PF Deni Avdija, Israel
The NBA tends to be reactionary when it comes to the draft, which can be particularly impactful for international prospects. Their stock tends to swing up and down more violently than a ride at Action Park. There was a ton of skepticism about Euros when Dirk Nowitzki came along. When he hit, the NBA got so excited they drafted Darko Milicic at # 2. Eventually that excitement wore off as the busts started to pile up again. But when Latvian Kristaps Porzingis looked like the real deal, it helped reverse that narrative and helped Dragan Bender go # 4 the following year.
In terms of that up-and-down timing, Deni Avdija stands to benefit. He's coming into the NBA on the heels of an incredible sophomore campaign from Luka Doncic. No one thinks that Avdija can be a superstar like Doncic, but teams aren't as wary of international wings (specifically white wings) these days. Avdija should go somewhere in the top 10 if not the top 5.
In my mind, that's justified. He's 6'9", which should allow him to play either the SF or PF positions. He hasn't shown to be an excellent shooter yet, but he should eventually be solid there. He's better suited as a playmaker and passer, and he can also use his size and skill to convert on slashes around the rim. I've seen some comparisons to Lamar Odom before, although that may be optimistic. More likely, he'll be a 4th or 5th starter. His experience as a pro should help toward that end, as he's used to working hard and fitting in on a team of vets.
best fits
If you project Deni Avdija to just "fit in" and be a solid starter, then he'd make sense on a team like Golden State (#2). He could effectively play the role of Harrison Barnes or old Andre Iguodala for them. If the intention is to make him more of a featured player, then the Knicks (#8) would be interesting. In that market, he has real star potential.
worst fits
I don't love the fit for Avdija in Charlotte (#3), where he may duplicate some of P.J. Washington's talents. Atlanta (#6) and Phoenix (#10) have also invested in young SF-PFs recently, so Avdija may find himself scraping for time there.
(6) SG/SF Devin Vassell, Florida State (HIGHER than most expert rankings)
Every single NBA team needs 3+D wings. They thirst for them like a dying man in the desert. And then, when a legitimate 3+D wing comes along, they often ignore them in favor of splashier players at other positions.
Part of the issue is that low-usage 3+D wings aren't going to put up monster stats. That's certainly true of Devin Vassell, who averaged a modest 12.7 points this past year. Still, you have to go deeper than the pure numbers alone and consider the context. Florida State had a stacked and balanced team. In fact, Vassell's 12.7 PPG was the highest on the roster (and came in only 28.8 minutes.) There's more in the tank here than we've seen so far. He can hit the three (42% and 42% from deep in his two years), and he shows a good feel for the game (2:1 assist/turnover ratio.)
Vassell shows even more potential on the defensive end. He's currently listed at 6'7" with a 6'10" wingspan, but he looks even longer than that to my eye. He's tenacious and disruptive (1.4 steals, 1.0 blocks) without being out of control. Presumably, he should be a good defender at either the SG or SF spot.
In a sense, Vassell's the prototype for a 3+D wing. To be fair, I don't anticipate him being a great shooter at the next level. His FT% was iffy, and he's apparently been tweaking his shot during the draft process. Still, if he can be a viable shooting threat in the way that Josh Richardson is (an inconsistent shooter who averages around 36%), then he should be a solid starter for an NBA team. That may not sound like something worthy of a top 5 pick, but the high "floor" helps him in this case. He also appears to have a strong character and work ethic, making him feel like an even safer bet.
best fits
Devin Vassell's skill set would fit on virtually any NBA roster -- but his perceived lack of upside may keep him from going as high as my personal ranking. If he does, then Cleveland (#5) would be a nice fit given their lack of big wings and their lack of defense. Defensive-challenged Washington (#9) would also make sense; Vassell tends to be listed as a SG but he should have enough size to play the SF for them.
worst fits
You can never have too many 3+D wings, but it may be a duplication to put Devin Vassell on the same team with Mikal Bridges in Phoenix (#10).
(7) PG Tyrese Haliburton, Iowa State
One of the reasons I'd have to be specific about a fit with a player like LaMelo Ball is that he needs the ball in his hands to maximize his potential. That's true for most lead guards.
Given that, it's a nice change of pace to see a prospect like Tyrese Haliburton come along. He's listed as a PG and he can perform those duties. This past season, he averaged 15.2 points and 6.5 assists per game. But he ALSO can operate as an off-the-ball player. As a freshman, he did exactly that, effectively working as a wing player and a glue guy on offense. His three-point shot looks wonky, but he converted 43% as a freshman and 42% as a sophomore. If that translates, he can be an effective spacer as well.
Haliburton's versatility also extends to the defensive end. He's 6'5" with an incredible 7'0" wingspan, allowing him to guard either PG or SGs. Like Devin Vassell, he also puts those tools to good use. Either one is an incredible athlete, but they're disruptive and locked in on that end. I'd expect Haliburton to be one of the better guard defenders in the NBA.
All in all, you may ask: why isn't this guy ranked HIGHER? The skill set would justify that. At the end of the day I don't see elite upside here (maybe George Hill?) because he may have some trouble getting his shot off in a halfcourt offense. Still, he's one of the safer prospects overall and a kid that you'd feel good betting on.
best fits
The New York Knicks (#8) may bring in a big-name guard like Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook, but if they stick with the rebuild then Tyrese Haliburton makes loads of sense. He can share playmaking duties with R.J. Barrett, and he can help Tom Thibodeau establish a defensive culture. He'd also make sense for Detroit (#7) and even Atlanta (#6). While the Hawks have Trae Young locked in at PG, Haliburton can play enough SG to justify 30+ overall minutes.
worst fits
Obviously any team that doesn't have room for a PG OR SG would be a problem here. Cleveland (#5) and Washington (#9) are the clearest examples of that. While Haliburton could theoretically guard some SFs, it's not the best use of his talent.
(8) PG Killian Hayes, France
If NBA centers are like NFL running backs, then point guards / lead playmakers may be like quarterbacks. There's positive and negatives to that comparison. Obviously, a good lead guard can immediately boost your team. At the same time, you don't really need more than one. And if you're not "the guy," then your impact is going to be limited.
Given that, there's a high bar to being a starting PG in the NBA. You have to be really, really friggin' good. According to many experts, Killian Hayes is exactly that. Physically he's what you want in the position, with a 6'5" frame. He averaged 16.8 points and 7.8 assists per 36 playing in Germany this year for a team that had a few former pros like Zoran Dragic. The Ringer has him # 1 overall.
Personally, I haven't completely bought into that hype yet. I can't claim to have season tickets to Ratiopharm Ulm, but when I watch highlights I don't really see ELITE traits here. He's not incredibly explosive, he's not a great shooter, he's over-reliant on his left hand. I have no doubt that he has the upside to be a good starter, but I don't think we've seen enough (or at least, I haven't) to make me confident in that projection.
best fits
Chicago (#4) and Detroit (#7) appear to be the most obvious fits for a potential star guard like Killian Hayes. And while the Knicks may have been underwhelmed by a French PG before, he would make sense for them at #8 as well.
worst fits
Teams with lead guards locked in -- Golden State (#2), Cleveland (#5), for example -- would be obviously problematic fits for Hayes. While he has the size to play some shooting guard defensively, he has a ways to go before he's a sharpshooting spacer.
(9) SG/SF Aaron Nesmith, Vanderbilt (HIGHER than most expert rankings)
Back when I was single, I dated a girl who presumably viewed me as a "developmental prospect." She'd always tell me how cool I'd look if I got some new jeans. How hot I'd be if I lost some weight. After a while, reality set in. It ain't happening, honey. What you see is what you get. The whole transformation idea may have worked with Chris Pratt, but it's not going to work with schlubby ol' Zandrick Ellison.
Sometimes it feels like NBA teams view prospects in the same delusional way. Josh Jackson can be a superstar -- if he develops his shot! Isaac Okoro can be a great pick -- if he becomes a great shooter! IF IF IF. We tend to forget that it's not that easy for a leopard to change his spots or for a player to suddenly develop a shooting stroke. It may have worked with Kawhi Leonard, but it's not working with most players.
Given that, we should value players who already have developed that skill. Aaron Nesmith is one of the best shooters in the draft -- right here, right now. He shot 52% from three and 83% from the line this past season. There's a sample size issue there (he only played 14 games prior to injury), but his shooting form looks fluid and suggests that he should be a legitimate 38-40% shooter from deep. While Nesmith isn't a great athlete or defender, his 7'0" wingspan should help him hang at either the SG or SF spots. All in all, we're talking about a player who should be a starter, or at the very least a high-level rotational player.
best fits
Aaron Nesmith isn't going to put a team on his back, but he can help carry the load offensively given his shooting ability. That should make him a good fit for a team like New Orleans (#13) as they look to replace J.J. Redick down the road. He'd also be an excellent fit with Orlando (#16) as they eye more shooters/scorers.
worst fits
It's hard to find a bad fit for a good shooting wing, but there are a few teams that may not have starting positions available. Phoenix (#10) already has Devin Booker and a few solid young SFs. Sacramento (#12) already has Buddy Hield and Bogdan Bogdanovic (presuming they retain them.)
(10) PG/SG R.J. Hampton, U.S/N.Z. (HIGHER than most expert rankings)
After that rant about delusions of grandeur with development prospects, let me try and talk you into a raw developmental prospect.
Like LaMelo Ball, R.J. Hampton went to play in the NBL during his gap year after high school. They were both top 10 prospects going in, but their stocks diverged from there. LaMelo Ball put up big numbers and locked himself into top 3 status. Hampton didn't showcase much (8.8 points per game on 41-30-68 shooting splits) and may drop out of the lottery altogether. But again, I'd caution us to consider context here. LaMelo Ball went to a bad team where he could jack up shots. Hampton played on a contending team that didn't spoon-feed him minutes.
Given that limited sample, I'm falling back on the "eye test" here. No doubt, Hampton's shot is a problem. He's a poor shooter now, and it may be 2-3 years before he straightens it out. At the same time, his size and explosion jumps out at you, particularly when he's attacking the basket. He also appears to be a mature and charismatic young man. That combo -- physical talent + basketball character -- tends to be a winning formula. There's some chance Hampton turns out to be a genuine star as a scoring lead guard. There's also a sizable chance he busts. Still, it's the type of gamble that teams in the late lottery should be considering.
best fits
In a PG-rich class, it'd be bold for Detroit (#8) to reach on R.J. Hampton. Still, he would fit there, as the team could groom him behind Derrick Rose for another year or two until he's ready to take over for major minutes. Any team that can afford him the luxury of patience would be a nice landing spot, even if it means going later in the draft to places like Boston (#14, #26) or Utah (#23.)
worst fits
I'd be less bullish on R.J. Hampton in situations where he may have to play early and take his lumps. The N.Y. Knicks (#8) have struggled to develop point guards Frank Ntilkina and Dennis Smith already, and a new coaching staff doesn't make those concerns go away. Hampton would also have lower upside on teams that already have scoring guards locked in, like Sacramento (#12) or Portland (#16).
(11) PF Obi Toppin, Dayton (LOWER than most expert rankings)
When Obi Toppin sees the list of names ahead of him, he should be stewing with rage. He's arguably the most productive player on the entire board. This past season at Dayton, he averaged 20.0 points on 63% shooting from the field. He's a good athlete and dunker, and he even hit 39% of his threes. At 6'9", he's a natural PF but he could theoretically play some SF or C too if need be. What else does a guy need to do to go in the top 5??
But while Toppin checks all the boxes on paper, I'm a little more skeptical. In fact, he reminds me a lot of Arizona PF Derrick Williams, who went # 2 in the 2011 draft. Many pundits thought Williams was the best player in the class, fresh on the heels of an awesome sophomore season that saw him average 19.5 points per game on 60% shooting and 57% (!) from three. The trouble is: Williams benefited from a small sample size from 3 that year (74 total). And while he was athletic in the dunking sense, he didn't have the hip movement to guard 3s or 4s effectively.
We see some of the same traits play out here with Toppin. He dominated this past season as a (22 year old) sophomore. Still, I'm doubtful that his three-point shooting is as good as the numbers suggest. I'm doubtful that his run-and-dunk athleticism translates to the defensive end, where he often looks stiff when changing direction. I can see a scenario where Toppin is a scoring big in the mold of a John Collins, but it's more likely to me that he'll be a scorer off the bench instead.
best fits
While I'm cool on Obi Toppin myself, I fully admit that I could be wrong and he may just end up being Rookie of the Year. That may happen if he plays on a team like Washington (#9) where his guards will be able to take a lot of pressure off and give him good opportunities to score. Cleveland (#5) would also make some sense if they trade Kevin Love.
worst fits
If Toppin's defense is going to be bad, then he'd be a poor fit with Atlanta (#6). I also don't see much of a fit with Sacramento (#12) given the presence of Marvin Bagley III. In the long run, both may end up being smallball 5s.
(12) SF Isaac Okoro, Auburn (LOWER than most expert rankings)
We've all had this experience before. You'll go see a movie that you hear everyone rave about and you come away... underwhelmed. It's fine. It's OK. But you just don't get all the fuss about it.
Right out of that Silver Linings Playbook comes Isaac Okoro. His stats don't jump off the page: 12.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 0.9 steals, 0.9 blocks. He's allegedly a great defensive player, but his dimensions (6'6" with a 6'8" wingspan) don't suggest "stopper." Worse yet, he's a poor shooter from distance (29% from three, 67% from the line.) The last time I got this sense of "meh-ness" was Jarrett Culver last year. I didn't understand how he went in the top 5, and I'm not going to understand how Okoro goes in the top 10 this year.
To be clear, I don't think Okoro (or Culver) is a BAD prospect, just that they're both overrated by the community. Okoro is definitely a strong kid who is active around the rim. He's a live body. He could theoretically improve his shooting and become a starter. Still, "potential starter" is not something that I want in a top 10 pick.
best fits
While I don't love Isaac Okoro myself, I can see some good fits on the board. Washington (#9) could use some thicker wings who can play solid defense. Portland (#16) is incredibly desperate for capable wings themselves.
worst fits
With Okoro, I don't necessarily think the worst fits are a matter of skill set as much as expectation. If he goes as high as Chicago (#4) or Cleveland (#5), I suspect he'll disappoint in terms of the returns and garner some resentment from the fan base.
(13) SG/SF Josh Green, Arizona
As oddly overrated as Isaac Okoro is (in my mind), Josh Green is oddly underrated. Okoro tends to go about 10 spots higher in mock drafts, but they seem nearly identical in terms of a head-to-head comparison. In fact, I had to go back and forth about which I'd rank higher. They're both good athletes for their position and should be backend starters at the next level. Okoro is thicker and better around the rim, while Green is further along as a shooter. Overall I leaned to Okoro because he had the size to match up with bigger SFs and has a little more of a bullying scorer gene in him, but it was a close race.
In fact, you can argue that Josh Green's selflessness will actually benefit him in the NBA. He's a "team guy," with an underrated passing ability and basketball IQ. The stats don't jump off the pages in that regard (2.6 assists, 1.6 turnovers), but he was also playing with a good college PG in Nico Mannion. As he moves to the NBA, he's unlikely to have the ball much either, but he projects to be an all-around glue guy who can help on both ends.
best fits
As with Isaac Okoro, Portland (#16) could be a nice landing spot for a solid wing player. And while New Orleans (#13) has a lot of athleticism already, it never hurts to have another viable wing. They tended to play small at the SG-SF spot, which hurt their defense overall. Playing Green could help them when they slide Brandon Ingram over to the 4 and Zion Williamson at the 5.
worst fits
I don't see many "bad" fits for Josh Green on the board, but you'd prefer that he went to a team that intended to make him a part of the future. Minnesota (#17) may not be able to do that if they already have Jarrett Culver and Josh Okogie. Brooklyn (#19) may not be looking for long-term projects since they're in a "win now" mode.
(14) PG Tyrell Terry, Stanford
Tyrell Terry is rocketing up draft boards on account of his stellar shooting ability (41% from 3, 89% from the line) and his better-than-expected measurement of 6'3". It's only natural that pundits would start comparing him to stud shooters like Steph Curry.
That said, not every stud shooter is Steph Curry. Some are Seth Curry. Some are Quinn Cook. There's a slight chance Terry breaks out as a good starter, but there's a better than average chance he peaks as a rotational player instead. Still, he should be an asset to a team as a spacer, particularly if they run their offense through a playmaking forward (like a LeBron James).
And in case you're wondering, no he is NOT related to Jason Terry, although some of their skill sets do overlap as scoring guards with deep range.
best fits
If we presume that Tyrell Terry can be a Seth (not Steph) type player, then adding him to Dallas (#18) makes sense. He can develop behind Seth for a year or two as he gains weight, and then help complement Luka Doncic as a spacer after that. Similarly, he makes sense for Philadelphia (#21) as well. We'd still lock Ben Simmons into the starting PG role, but Terry could play alongside him in lineups or be used as a sparkplug off the bench.
worst fits
Teams that may be eyeing Tyrell Terry as a surefire starter will have to be careful. For example, Phoenix (#10) needs an heir apparent for Ricky Rubio, but a Terry + Devin Booker combo may be problematic on the defensive end. Some other teams -- Brooklyn (#19) and Denver (#22) -- already have sharpshooter guards, so they don't have as strong of a need for this type of player.
(15) PF Aleksej Pokusevski, Serbia
We mentioned that LaMelo Ball may be the biggest boom/bust prospect in the class, likening him to gambling on Roulette. Enter Aleksej Pokusevski. "Gambling" may not even be doing it justice. This is like risking your family fortune on a bag of magic beans.
But hey, that worked for Jack, and it could work for an NBA team as well. I have a friend who works in coaching who raved about Pokusevski and considers him a top 10 prospect overall. After all, this is a legit 7'0" player with true perimeter skills. Playing for Olympiacos' development team, he averaged 16.7 points, 12.2 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 2.0 steals, and 2.8 blocks per 36 minutes. He hasn't even turned 19 years old yet, giving him an enormous amount of upside.
Still, he scares the hell out of me. He's listed at 7'0" and 200 pounds, with narrow shoulders that make you doubt how much weight he'll be able to carry in the long term. His body type doesn't remind you of any current NBA forwards; it reminds you of two kids wearing a trenchcoat.
All in all, Pokusevski seems like a great prospect to invest in, presuming you don't have to withdraw from the bank until 2023 or 2024. To that end, teams should only consider them if they feel confident in their long-term job security.
best fits
If the goal is to send Aleksej Pokusevski to a good, stable organization, then you can't do much better than San Antonio (#11). Even if Gregg Popovich retires from coaching, R.C. Buford should be around to help the next coach (Becky Hammon? Will Hardy? R.C.'s son Chase?). And if the goal is to find a good stable GM, Sam Presti and Oklahoma City (#25) would be a great home as they prepare for a long-term rebuild.
worst fits
Orlando (#15) always values length, but they have limited space left in the frontcourt and limited leg room left on that poor charter plane.
I wasn't kidding when I said this post was "overly" long. The rest of the top 20 got cut off because of a length limit. I'll try to include them in the comment section.

In what now feels like a lifetime ago, there was a stretch of weeks in the not-so-distant past when Christian Wood was duking it out with 17-year veteran Joe Johnson for an NBA paycheck. Yes, that Christian Wood, the man who in a year went from a basketball couch surfer to one of the most intriguing and efficient big men in the NBA.
This offseason, months after becoming a recognizable name with the Pistons, Wood signed a three-year, $41 million contract with the Rockets. It’s a significant upgrade from being picked up off waivers by Detroit a year prior. For most of last season, there was a belief that when Wood officially became one of free agency’s marquee names that he’d re-sign with the Pistons, the franchise that provided him his first real opportunity and was pivoting toward a rebuild. Per sources, there was interest on both sides for most of the offseason.
In the NBA, though, things change quickly.
The decision to part ways has worked out so far for all parties involved. The Pistons instead used their cap space to gamble on Jerami Grant, a career side-kick forward who, with the role as top option in Detroit, has emerged as one of the league’s breakout candidates. And Wood has taken his success story from the Motor City and continued to add pages in Houston.
“It’s a journey,” Wood said during his introductory press conference as a member of the Rockets. “I wouldn’t put it on anybody. It’s a journey that I’ve learned a lot from to get to where I am now. And I wouldn’t ask for any other way, because I know it made me who I am now. It made me have this chip on my shoulder. It made me have this determination to try and be better than everybody I played against on the court.”
In July 2019, Wood signed a non-guaranteed contract with Detroit. After a short but productive stint with the New Orleans Pelicans, the Pistons’ decision-makers identified the then-24-year-old as someone who was worth taking a closer look at. After all, his abilities as a basketball player were always met with high regard. It was his immaturity and lack of professionalism upon entering the league that caused him to play in six NBA cities and China in less than five years.
Wood wasn’t always on time to practice. He didn’t always pay attention to detail. Professionalism, or lack-thereof, was going to be the reason the on-court production might not see the light of day.
“For me, I thought at a young age that my talent was going to take over,” Wood told The Athletic last season. “I thought I was more talented than everybody. It wasn’t that. I had to get the work aspect down. It wasn’t just about talent all of the time.”
After decisively beating out Johnson for the final 15-man roster spot, Wood started the season coming off the bench for Detroit but was one of the more efficient scorers in the league. His offensive rating of 110.9 was tied for second best on the roster, and his true shooting percentage of 66.2 was 13th in the NBA (min. 18 minutes per game and at least 20 games played) from the start of the regular season to the trade deadline.
At the Feb. 7 trade deadline, the Pistons, who had their playoff aspirations crushed by injuries to Blake Griffin and Luke Kennard, signaled for the first time that they were going to rebuild. The franchise traded cornerstone big man Andre Drummond to the Cavaliers for cap filler. This opened the door for Wood to take on a starting role to finish the season. Teams called Detroit about Wood at the deadline, per sources. His efficient scoring in a limited role intrigued other teams like it did the Pistons. The Celtics and Rockets were two of the teams that were in hot pursuit of Wood, per sources. Detroit, though, wanted to see if the big man could handle more responsibility before having to invest in the coming offseason.
Once Wood became a full-time starter, he took off. Now with a larger role, Wood continued to prove that he was one of the most diverse frontcourt talents in the NBA. From the day after the trade deadline to the moment the NBA was shut down in mid-March due to COVID-19, Wood averaged 22.8 points and 9.9 rebounds while shooting 40 percent from 3 and holding a true-shooting percentage of 65.3.
For a month and some change, Wood was the best player on an NBA team. And while Detroit was destined for a top-10 pick in the lottery, Wood showed that he could be the new franchise cornerstone as it moved in a different direction.
However, as the months passed and the league decided to restart in the Orlando bubble without the Pistons and seven other teams, Detroit made some organizational changes. In June, the Pistons hired Troy Weaver as its new general manager. Weaver spent the last decade as Sam Presti’s right-hand man in Oklahoma City. His vision for the early days of the rebuild was to create a defensive-minded roster equipped with length and versatility. During his early press conferences, Weaver told reporters that Wood was someone of interest for the organization. Detroit had roughly $30 million in cap space to use.
When free agency opened in late November, the Pistons shocked the basketball world by committing $60 million over three years to Grant. Detroit eventually executed a sign-and-trade with the Nuggets — Grant’s previous employer — to make the deal happen. Grant and Weaver have a relationship that goes back to Grant’s high school days in Maryland. Weaver believed that the 26-year-old was the ideal player for the type of roster that he wanted to construct. Additionally, Weaver thought Grant had the potential to be more than just a role player. In hindsight, Weaver’s evaluation and thought process has proved to be more than correct.
During this process, the Pistons also offered Wood a contract, per sources. Detroit wanted him to be part of this retooling, as well. However, there was a specific price in mind. Detroit had Wood’s “Early Bird” rights, which meant that if it were able to sign him to a deal that paid, roughly, $10 million annually, Wood’s salary would only count as $1.7 million against their cap. Anything more would count toward the cap in full. Per sources, Detroit didn’t offer more than the annual amount that it would take for the smallest cap hit. The priority for the Pistons under Weaver was to acquire Grant, who, especially defensively, fits more of the mold of what the revamped front office was looking for.
Wood and his reps then turned their attention elsewhere. The Rockets, who were now under new leadership but still interested in landing Wood’s services, stepped up to the plate. Houston and Detroit worked out a sign-and-trade that was highlighted by Wood going to the Rockets and the Pistons receiving the No. 16 pick in the 2020 NBA Draft.
Last season, as much as Houston emphasized the need to go small for spacing and Russell Westbrook-related reasons, the internal plan was never to be exclusive. There was still a desire to add a skillful big man to the roster. The biggest benefit of small ball is the ability to play five out offensively and while that view has never departed, the Rockets believed that you didn’t need to be small to play that style — granted you have the personnel to do so.
After trading Clint Capela to Atlanta for Robert Covington before the trade deadline, Houston aggressively pursued expanding the deal to add another center in the league-allotted window, sources say. Wood was among the options the Rockets pursued, with the team offering Isaiah Hartenstein and two second-round picks to Detroit, sources say — which Detroit turned down.
When free agency rolled back around, Houston was determined to get the big man they had been keeping tabs on for five years. The coronavirus pandemic has changed a lot of in-person interactions — an underrated aspect of free agency — but that never deterred the Rockets from getting their message across. Internally, Houston saw Wood as the best offensive big man available during the offseason in part due to his versatility as a roller and floor spacer. With the direction the franchise was heading in — at least offensively — being able to do multiple things on the floor was seen as the best way to pressure opposing defenses. His potential and his successful stint post-trade deadline only increased his profile from a Rockets aggression standpoint.
At the beginning of free agency, Houston reached out to Wood and his representation and told him that getting a deal done was a priority. The majority of interactions took place via Zoom, phone calls and even FaceTime.
For Wood, the most important thing for him was talking to Rockets head coach Stephen Silas himself. The two had a relationship that dated back to their time together in Charlotte five years ago, but Wood was much more raw and younger then. Their early conversations centered on Wood’s development. Now, with both of their careers having seen tangible growth, it was a timeline come full circle.
“The old days were more about building habits and what it takes to be a consistent NBA player,” Silas said. “Less about the game and playing, more about the maturity it takes to be an NBA player. Now it’s more about the responsibility of being a starting center, a go-to guy, the anchor of our defense, and all of those things. It’s definitely shifted in a big way. It’s a credit to him because he’s grown in so many different ways to become the player that he is today, but also the professional that he is.”
Wood wanted to hear what Silas thought about the potential fit and what his offense would look like. Coming off the historic year Silas had as a member of the Dallas Mavericks’ staff during the 2019-20 season, Wood was intrigued with the thought of reuniting with Silas.
In those conversations, Silas detailed a plan for Wood in a role similar to Kristaps Porzingis’ in Dallas. There was enough of a sample for Silas to see that Wood could do similar things offensively to Porzingis. Like his Mavericks counterpart, Wood can play the power forward or center position, although he has played the latter for the bulk of his time in Houston this season. Both players are blessed with a unique blend of height, length, and on-court savvy. Porzingis is obviously the more polished and experienced player, but Wood has the capability of reaching that level.
Looking at their per-36 stats from the 2019-20 season, they were nearly identical to one another in most of the categories.
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Player	Season	Points	Rebounds	Blocks	3P%	2PA
Christian Wood	2019-20	22	10.6	1.5	38.6	10
Kristaps Porzingis	2019-20	23.1	10.7	2.3	35.2	10.5

It’s still early in the year, but it’s been a successful start for Wood’s Rockets tenure, one that is more impressive given the wild and crazy start the team has had in 2020-21. He’s averaging All-Star numbers — 23.5 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks per game, shooting 36.2 percent from 3 on 4.8 attempts per. Wood is second in roll possession per game and leads all players in points, according to tracking data from NBA.com.
At the beginning of the season, Silas acknowledged that Wood’s defense would be a process. There were some early moments when Wood failed to assert himself in the middle of the floor and his teammates discussed the importance of him becoming a more vocal leader and an enforcer in the paint.
Since the James Harden trade, Wood’s usage has increased to 28.8, and his defensive rating has improved to a stingy 100.3. As Silas has diversified his schemes, Wood has been able to adjust accordingly. The most important part of his defense has been how he performs in Houston’s drop coverage, a tactic that has its benefits but is risky against elite shooters. Wood has to pick his battles, when to show and when to hang back. Where he has excelled as of late is using his length to contest and block shots.
Privately, Wood feels decent about his season so far but he knows there is still room for improvement. He’d like to get more consistent with his outside shooting, although it’s back up to around league average now, as well as get to the free-throw line.
One notable area of growth for Wood has been his confidence. It’s no surprise to see him make a defensive stop on one end, bring the ball down the floor in the same sequence and score.
“I learn every game,” Wood says. “I feel like I’m getting better every game, especially defensively. Coach has that trust in me to bring the ball up the floor and make plays for others and I trust him too. It’s mutual.”
Life for Wood is a bit different now having started the season with Harden and now playing with a Victor Oladipo-John Wall backcourt. But Wood’s determination and optimism has never waned, only increased. Against the Suns on Wednesday night, Wood sustained a right ankle injury and looked questionable to return for the second half. The team medics advised against Wood playing but he couldn’t leave his teammates on the floor so he returned, pain and all.
“I was hurting the whole second half,” Wood said after the game. “They told me actually not to go in and play but I felt like my team needed me. My team needed to win this game. So, I have to sacrifice for my team. Whether it’s my body or shots or points or anything like that, I feel like my team needs me on the floor. That’s one of the reasons I came back out for the second half.”
Wood is part of a team’s future. He’s one of the guys. Much of Houston’s success in the coming years will depend on his development and sustained play as a rising star in the NBA.
It’s a far cry from where Wood was just even a summer ago.